Market analysis：Overall, AUD/USD is ranging across. Recently, AUD/USD has been moving within a 50pips range.Australian banks will be closed today in observance of Easter Monday. Lower trading volume and volatility is expected during the Australian trading session.AUD/USD’s next support level is at 0.61800 and the next resistance level is at 0.64800.
Eurozone Faces Severe Recession in Economy; signs of a rebound may show up in the third quarter, but the economy won't recover completely until 2021.EURUSD daily pivot point: 1.0935 S1: 1.0919 R1: 1.0951 S2: 1.0902 R2: 1.0967
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Market analysis：OPEC and allies led by Russia agreed on Sunday to a record cut in output to prop up oil prices amid the coronavirus pandemic in an unprecedented deal with fellow oil nations, including the United States, that could curb global oil supply by 20%.
Market analysis：covid-19 case update.... still shocked by the News ....
Market analysis：this has to stop... cause I don't know what the world is turning into... we need help from above
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Market analysis：Pergerakan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) hari ini begitu mencengangkan. Hingga sesi I tadi IHSG tercatat menguat 9,7% ke posisi 4.316, bahkan sempat naik 10% lebih. Namun, apakah penguatan ini akan terus berlanjut?Direktur Anugerah Mega Investama Hans Kwee menilai penguatan ini hanya bersifat sementara. IHSG menguat ditopang oleh sentimen positif global, terutama pasar saham AS.
After hesitating in the previous week, gold prices soared in these last few days, with spot gold trading as high as $ 1,690.23 a troy ounce, to close the week less than $ 10.00 below this last. The bright metal gained the most on Thursday, following the US Federal Reserve decision to announce another round on massive easing, this time in the form of loans of up to $2.3 trillion.Following the announcement, US Federal Reserve Chief Powell offered a speech afterwards and reaffirmed that the central bank would continue to use all available tools to support the American economy until it recovers. Concerned about the high levels of unemployment the US may reach, Powell was overall confident that the situation will revert as soon as the pandemic is under control.Gold futures, in the meantime, reached a 7.5 year high around $1,750.00 a troy ounce after the announcement, as the ongoing pandemic-related crisis, keeps fueling demand for the safe-haven metal. With the world’s economies in pause, fears or recession loom, hence, demand for gold will likely persist.Excess of liquidity and shortage of physical goldMeanwhile, gold supply remains subdued. This past week, several Swill refineries re-opened, but global demand keeps rising. And as central banks have turned on the printing machine, much of the excess of liquidity has already a place to go.The extend of the global economic damage caused by the pandemic is yet to be seen, although nobody doubts it will be long and painful. In this scenario, gold is meant to keep on rallying.More hints on how the pandemic is hitting the world will be out next week, as the US will report March Retail Sales, and Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended March 3.Spot Gold Technical OutlookTrading at around 1,680, spot gold is close to the multi-year high set early Mach at 1.703.18. The commodity is bullish, with technicals aligned with fundamentals.The weekly chart shows that it bottomed at around the 61.8% retracement of its latest weekly slump, at 1,606.60. It has continued to develop far above all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA accelerating north. Technical indicators have resumed their advances within positive levels, although they lack enough strength to confirm a steeper advance.In the daily chart, the Momentum indicator is partially losing its bullish strength in overbought levels, while the RSI maintains its strength upward at around 63. The 20 DMA has turned back north, although it’s barely picking up after trending lower for the past 5-weeks. Anyway, the larger moving averages maintain their bullish slopes.The weekly high at 1,690 is the immediate resistance ahead of 1,703. Beyond this last, 1,795.80, the high from October 2012, comes at sight. Supports for the upcoming days come at 1,661 and the 1,640 price zone.
Technical OverviewEUR/USD faces the next key up barrier at the January’s low at 1.0992 ahead of the psychological 1.10 mark. Further up, the pair needs to surpass the critical 200-day SMA, today at 1.1060, in order to allow for a visit to recent peaks in the mid-1.1100s (March 27/30). In case sellers step in, the monthly/weekly low at 1.0768 (April 6) should emerge as an interim support ahead of the 2020 low at 1.0635 recorded in mid-March.Fundamental OverviewEUR/USD manages well to keep business in the upper end of the weekly range at the end of the week, always in a context of the renewed and moderate selling pressure in the buck and the positive outcome from the Eurogroup meetings.In fact, the recent deal clinched by the Eurogroup has mitigated political concerns that have re-surfaced following the effervescence between Holland-Germany and France-Italy-Spain, all regarding the joint efforts to fund the effects of the COVID-19 on some economies.Later in the day, the focus of attention is expected to be on the publication of US March’s inflation figures, although marginal volatility and flat trade conditions due to the Easter holidays could remove some significance from the release.
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Market analysis：Gold prices rallied on Thursday despite a rather rosy session on Wall Street. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 closed +1.22% and +1.45% respectively to wrap up the holiday-shortened week. This is despite the ongoing onslaught of dismal US economic data that is being plagued by the coronavirus outbreak. Jobless claims surged 6.6 million last week, well above the 5.5m estimate and slightly lower than the previous 6.8m gain.
CANADIAN DOLLAR, LOONIE, USD/CAD TALKING POINTS:USD/CAD put in an aggressive breakout in March, and has since started to pullback.That bullish breakout stopped 21 pips shy of the 17-year-high.The ensuing snapback has grown in aggression, with price action now testing around the 1.4000 psychological level.
Market analysis：USD/CHF is trading above the 0.9600 figure and the 200 SMA on the four-hour chart suggesting bullish momentum in the medium term. Bulls would need to reclaim the 0.9700 figure to target the 0.9800 level. Support is expected near 0.9600, 0.9550 and 0.9500 levels.
Market analysis：From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair, despite advancing, has held at the lower end of its previous weekly range. The market seems to be in its way to stabilise after the wild moves seen at the beginning of March when the pandemic crisis unfolded. The recovery seen these last few days, stalled at around the 38.2% of the latest daily advance measured between 1.0635 and 1.1147.
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Market analysis：Intervensi Amerika Serikat untuk mengakhiri perang harga minyak antara Arab Saudi dan Rusia di tengah pandemi corona menjadi harapan baru. Diplomasi AS tersebut membuat harga minyak melambung di perdagangan Asia.Namun para analis mengatakan bahwa kenaikan tersebut akan terbatas saat permintaan berjuang akibat dilakukannya penutupan bisnis, transportasi perjalanan udara, dan jarak sosial (social distancing) yang diberlakukan untuk menekan angka penyebaran wabah corona."Harga minyak lebih tinggi di tengah berita bahwa Presiden AS Trump akan mengadakan diskusi meja bundar dengan para eksekutif minyak terkemuka negara itu," kata ahli strategi pasar global AxiCorp, Stephen Innes, dikutip dari AFP.
The USD/CAD broke back below 1.4000 for the first time in six sessions on Tuesday as the continuing dissolution of the US labor market failed to excite further risk-aversion fears and the Federal Reserve unveiled a $600 billion lending program for medium sized business part of a $2.3 trillion package to support local and state governments and companies with loans and securities purchases.OPEC and Russia agreed on a tentative production deal which would cut about 10 million barrels a day in May and June. Saudi Arabia and Russia, the largest producers, would reduce their output by 8.5 million a day and all members would cut their supply by 23%, according to news reports.The deal is conditional on Mexico’s approval. Energy Secretary Rocio Nahle Garcia said on Twitter after the Thursday meeting that her country is willing to reduce output by 100,000 barrels far less than the 400,000 assumed in the agreement.This attempt to support oil prices with supply restrictions is far larger than previous efforts by the cartel and is backed by US President Trump. North American shale companies are under severe financial pressure from the more than 50% collapse in crude prices this year. Production costs in the shale fields are generally higher than the more traditional extraction in the Middle East and Siberia.Signs that the pandemic is easing in the US and Europe improved risk sentiment throughout the week. The USD/CAD fell 1.8% and is back to the level of mid-March before the most aggressive Coronavirus inspired fears drove the pair to 1.4668 on March 19, the highest price in four years and the second highest since 2003. The euro gained 1.3% versus the dollar on the week and the USD/JPY was static opening at 108.53 and closing just 10 points lower, though it was down from Monday’s 109.38 high.USD/CAD outlookEconomic damage around the world from the public health measures instituted to cope with the Coronavirus has taken concrete shape with the astonishing US and Canadian jobs losses.In the US almost 17 million people, 10% of the workforce, have filed for unemployment insurance in the last three weeks. In Canada one million workers lost their positions in March and the unemployment rate jumped to 7.8% from 5.6%, its highest since February 2011.Market risk is a matter of perception. In the ascending phase of the crisis in early March the extent of the pandemic and its economic effects were largely unknown but subject to the worst interpretations. The US dollar and US assets were, as they have always been, the refuge of choice. The actual job losses in the US and Canada were far higher than expected but they are now known instead of conjecture and if the knowledge is not reassuring is quantifiable.Five factors began to tilt the risk balance away from the US dollar and toward the loonie this week. First, the pandemic has started to moderate in several countries in a fashion that may predict its end. Second, infection, hospitalization and fatality rates in the US are proving to have been widely exaggerated when compared to real numbers and the models have been adjusted lower by large multiples. Third, government support programs from Washington and Ottawa and the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada have restored market confidence in the functioning of the financial system and, more hopefully, that some of the economic pain from closures can be mitigated. Fourth, talk in DC is slowly shifting to how and when to reopen the economy. Fifth, the OPEC production deal, if approved, should put a floor under crude prices until the reviving global economy increases demand.None of these developments are assured but if they continue the US dollar’s risk premium, in general and against the Canadian in particular, will slowly drain away and the stage will be set for Dollar Canada to return to pre-crisis levels.The USD/CAD is supported at 1.3950, 1.3800 and 1.3660 but the rapid nature of the price movement in the last month and the fundamental motivation means that these levels will not endure much pressure. The same stipulations apply to the resistance lines at 1.4075, 1.4180, 1.4300 and 1.4380.
Pound/dollar was somewhat shocked – like the British public and the rest of the world – by Prime Minister Boris Johnson's admission to intensive care amid complications of COVID-19. Cases and deaths of the disease continue mounting in the UK, US, and elsewhere, and lockdowns are likely to continue weighing on the economies.This week in GBP/USD: Leadership vacuum amid the peak of the crisisBeing in intensive care is never good news – the report that PM Johnson's condition deteriorated weighed on the pound, and so did the initial release of his hospitalization. Calming words from Downing Street – such as that he does not need ventilation – failed to unnerve traders. Johnson has been elected in a landslide majority only in December and had considerable political clout, and his absence in a national crisis is worrying. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab is deputizing for him and running the day to day operations, but it is unclear how far he can go with big decisions. Raab, a former lawyer, and a hard-Brexiteer previously competed for the job and is experienced in government. However, the UK's management of the crisis has already come under criticism, first for letting the virus run and later for the lack of tests. Having a less-experienced and less popular interim leader in place is yet another factor weighing on confidence. The death toll from coronavirus continues rising and souring the mood, especially as the University of Washington forecast that the UK may suffer 66,000 mortalities. In the US, the curve also refuses to flatten significantly, with the states of New York and New Jersey suffering rapid spreads. Other parts of the country are not as hard hit for now, and President Donald Trump is considering opening up some parts of the economy. Trump is also warming up to add stimulus to the economy, mulled by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Another $1 trillion in expenditure to mitigate the economic effects of coronavirus is under consideration. The reports pushed stocks higher at some point and weighed on the dollar. US jobless claims disappointed once again with over 6 million – yet markets jumped as the Federal Reserve announced a new scheme at the exact same time. The Fed laid out several new schemes that total $2.3 in loans. The new bazooka from Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues sent stocks up and the dollar down. UK events: Johnson's health, lockdown extension, economic measuresAt the time of writing, the PM's condition remains stable, but he has not left intensive care. Any update on Johnson may move markets and overwhelm other events. The longer he stays in the hospital, the more significant the pressure on the pound. The UK is set to extend its lockdown for several weeks – at least until a peak in cases can be seen in the rearview mirror. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab will likely have to take that decision, based on medical experts' advice and alongside his peers in the cabinet. Former health minister Jeremy Hunt suggested that significant restrictions may be extended for at least a month.The shuttering is taking a substantial toll on the economy, and the public is playing along. However, criticism may increase if testing for COVID-19 cases remains limited. Raab may find himself in a tricky situation and without the necessary political capital to deal with an escalation of the crisis.See Coronavirus Exit Strategy: Three critical factors to watch and how they impact currenciesOne option that has been aired is a government of national unity. Keir Starmer, a moderate, has been elected leader and may join forces with the Conservatives amid the deterioration and as long as the PM remains away from Downing Street. Such a move, which is in its infancy, may boost the pound. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak – who would take over if Raab becomes sick – may introduce additional measures to help struggling businesses and workers, and the unemployed if lockdowns are extended. That would also be positive for the pound. The only noteworthy economic release is the British Retail Consortium's Retail Sales figure for March. It will likely reflect a leap as Brits stockpiled ahead of the lockdown.Here is the list of UK events from the FXStreet calendar:UK macro economic events April 13 17 2020US events: Potential restriction easing and consumer dataHas the US coronavirus crisis peaked or not? That question will likely be on the top of the agenda and may see a struggle between health officials and the White House. Trump would like to return to normal as soon as possible, to boost the economy and his reelection chances.However, Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIH), said it is time to intensify efforts, not loosen them. In any case, the decision mostly rests with state governors. The longer the shutdowns last, the worse for the economy and stocks – and better for the safe-haven dollar.Governors will likely make decisions according to the health situation in their states so that the daily updates may have the most substantial impact on currencies. The epicenter has been New York, but with some signs of peaking, the focus may move to other places in America. Retail sales for March stand out, and they may show a discrepancy between the headline figure and core numbers. Overall, shopping may have risen – or at least not collapsed – as Americans were stocking up on supplies. However, excluding volatile items, expenditure has likely dropped amid massive layoffs. It is also essential to note that the figures have unlikely captured the full extent of the economic damage in March, and the whole picture will be available only with revisions due in the following report. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book – usually a "gray" document – will shed some light on what central bankers here from businesses and the picture will likely be gloomy. The publication precedes the next Fed decision.Weekly jobless claims remain a wildcard, with figures in the millions, but likely without a clear consensus. This publication, for the week ending on April 10, is the first one where the four-week rolling average will have already captured four consecutive reports in the millions. The smoothed-out indicator will likely provide a baseline for the employment situation.
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GOLD TECHNICAL PRICE OUTLOOK: XAU/USD WEEKLY TRADE LEVELSGold priceupdated technical trade levels - Weekly ChartXAU/USD surges into weekly uptrend resistance – weekly close in focusNew to Gold Trading? Get started with this Free How to Trade Gold -Beginners GuideGold prices surged nearly 4% this week with the XAU/USD rally testing uptrend resistance ahead of the extended holiday break. While the broader outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable IF price closes below this threshold. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the gold weekly chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this XAU/USD trade setup and more.Notes: In my last Gold Weekly PriceOutlook we noted that the XAU/USD rally was, “testing the first major resistance hurdle here at the yearly high-close. From a trading standpoint, the advance remains vulnerable while below this threshold.” The level in focus was 1673 – price is trading above this level in early New York trade on Thursday with parallel resistance catching the intraday highs for now. We’re looking for a reaction up here.A close below slope resistance would leave the advance vulnerable heading into the extended holiday break. Initial support rests at the January highs at 1611 backed by 1586 and the April open at 1574- now medium-term bullish invalidation. A topside breach from here exposes subsequent resistance objectives at the yearly swing high at 1703 and the 78.6% retracement / pitchfork resistance at 1733/37 – look for a larger reaction there IF reached.Bottom line: The gold price rally is testing uptrend resistance and the focus is on the weekly close with respect to this slope. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops. While the broader outlook remains constructive, be on the lookout for possible near-term exhaustion here IF price holds below this trendline – ultimately, a larger pullback may offer more favorable entries with a breach of the highs exposing longer-term technical resistance above 1730. Review my latest Gold Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trading levels.GOLD TRADER SENTIMENT – XAU/USD PRICE CHARTA summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +3.04 (75.26% of traders are long) – bearishreadingLong positions are11.29% higher than yesterday and 10.13% higher from last weekShort positions are0.65% higher than yesterday and 1.52% higher from last weekWe typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
Market analysis：EURO TALKING POINTSEUR/USD appears to have staged a failed attempt to test the yearly low (1.0636), and the exchange rate may face range bound conditions through the Easter holiday as it snaps the series of lower highs and lows carried over from the previous weekTECHNICAL FORECAST FOR EURO: NEUTRALThe monthly opening range has been a key dynamic for EUR/USD in the fourth quarter of 2019 as the exchange rate carved a major low on October 1, with the high for November occurring during the first full week of the month, while the low for December happened on the first day of the month.The opening range for 2020 showed a similar scenario as EUR/USD marked the high of the month on January 2, with the exchange rate carving the February high during the first trading day of the month. However, the opening range for March was less relevant amid the pickup in volatility, with the pullback from the yearly high (1.1495) producing a break of the February low (1.0778) as the exchange rate slipped to a fresh 2020 low (1.0636).Nevertheless, the 50-Day SMA (1.0971) and the 200-Day SMA (1.1062) cast a bearish outlook for EUR/USD as both moving averages track a negative slope, but the exchange rate appears to be reversing course ahead of the yearly low (1.0636) as it snaps the series of lower highs and lows from the previous week.The recent recovery in EUR/USD unravels following the string of failed attempt to close above the 1.1140 (78.6% expansion) region, but the exchange rate appears to have marked a failed attempt to test the yearly low (1.0636) amid the lack of momentum to break/close below the 1.0780 (100% expansion) region.In turn, EUR/USD may face range bound conditions over the coming days, with the move above the Fibonacci overlap around 1.0830 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0860 (23.6% retracement) opening up the 1.0950 (100% expansion) to 1.0980 (78.6% retracement) region.Next area of interest comes in around 1.1040 (61.8% expansion) followed by the 1.1100 (78.6% expansion) handle.
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