Overall, NZD/USD is trending upwards. Recently, NZD/USD moved lower, breaking the support level of 0.60300.NZD/USD’s next support level is at 0.58400 and the next resistance level is at 0.60300.
Overall, USD/JPY is ranging across. Recently, USD/JPY moved lower towards the key level of 107.Currently, USD/JPY is testing to break below the key level of 107. Its next support level is at 106.800 and the next resistance level is at 108.500.
GOLD AND CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:Gold prices made new 7-year highs as haven assets continued to find favorChinese import and export numbers beat gloomy forecastsCrude oil held up, but massive production cuts have not seen an upside range break yetGold prices pushed on to new seven-year highs on Tuesday as investors continued to fret about the global economic hit dealt by the coronavirus even as Chinese economic data came in less weakly than expected.In US Dollar terms exports fell by 6.6% on the year in March, while imports slipped by 0.9%. This was in both cases much less than forecasts which centred on respective falls of 13.9% and 9.8%. While these numbers may suggest that supply chains are holding up better than economists had feared, it remains likely that the full extent of the demand collapse seen in western economies now to varying extents locked down has yet to show up in the data.The US Congress struggled to come up with a new relief bill on Monday with the Republicans and Democrats in standoff. The budget deficit is now forecast to balloon and anxious eyes are being cast are the dawning corporate earnings season. Meanwhile the International Monetary Fund said on Monday that it would provide immediate relief to 25 member nations under its catastrophe relief program.Given all of the above a continued strong haven bid into gold is unsurprising and, indeed can be clearly seen. The metal is now at its highest since November 2012, with its all-time peaks now in the bulls’ sights.
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR TALKING POINTSNZD/USD trades to a fresh monthly high (0.6131) even though New Zealand’s Treasury anticipates “a deep contraction in activity in the present June quarter,” and the exchange rate faces a key test as it comes up against the former support zone around 0.6170 (50% expansion) to 0.6230 (38.2% expansion).NZD/USD RATE FORECAST: FORMER SUPPORT ZONE ON THE RADARNZD/USD extends the advance from earlier this month even though New Zealand’s Treasury outlines five different economic scenarios following COVID-19, with the growth rate expected to decline “around 13% in Scenario 1, the least restrictive of the scenarios considered.”Recent price action raises the scope for a larger correction as NZD/USD negates a bear flag formation and breaks out of a narrow range, but the weakening outlook for global growth undermines the recent rebound in the exchange rate as it puts pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to further support the economy.The government projection warns “peaks in the unemployment rate vary from around 13% in Scenario 1 to nearly 26% in Scenario 3,” and the nationwide lockdown may force the RBNZ to deploy more non-standard measures even though the central bank adds “$3 billion of Local Government Funding Agency (LGFA) debt to its Large Scale Asset Purchase programme (LSAP).”Unlike the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the RBNZ may continue to endorse a dovish forward guidance at its next meeting on May 13 as Governor Adrian Orr insists that the central bank “can keep monetary support going for as long as necessary through QE (quantitative easing) and other tools.”It seems as though the RBNZ will continue to utilize its balance sheet as officials insist that the official cash rate (OCR) will sit at the record low of 0.25%for “at least 12 months,” and it remains to be seen if Governor Orr and Co. will continue to push monetary policy into uncharted territory as the central bank plans to “update its economic assessment and the size and scope of the LSAP at its next scheduled meeting.”With that said, the near-term correction in NZD/USD may continue to evolve ahead of the next RBNZ interest rate decision, but the exchange rate faces a key test as it comes up against the former support zone around 0.6170 (50% expansion) to 0.6230 (38.2% expansion
SINGAPORE DOLLAR, INDONESIAN RUPIAH, MALAYSIAN RINGGIT, PHILIPPINE PESO – TALKING POINTSUS Dollar sank versus ASEAN FX as sentiment continued improving last weekAll eyes are on US earnings and retail sales. China GDP, Bank of Indonesia upWhat else is in store for USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/MYR and USD/PHP ahead?US DOLLAR ASEAN WEEKLY RECAPLast week’s US Dollar rout continued against ASEAN FX as it depreciated against the Singapore Dollar, Indonesian Rupiah, Malaysian Ringgit and Philippine Peso. Market sentiment continued to broadly improve which helped to slow overall capital outflows from emerging market economies. To learn more about the importance of this fundamental theme, check out last week’s ASEAN fundamental outlook.Investors’ cheery mood could be attributed to a combination of hope for further US fiscal stimulus as well as slowing coronavirus case growth around parts of the world. Once again, the markets brushed aside the ongoing onslaught of dismal economic data. An unprecedented 17 million people have applied for jobless claims in the United States since the middle of last month as local consumer sentiment dwindled.One of the best-performing ASEAN currencies was the Indonesian Rupiah. This could have been attributed to the Federal Reserve opening up a US$60 billion repo facility with the country to help ease a USD shortage. ASEAN central banks have been stepping up efforts to stem devaluations in their currencies. Foreign exchange reserves are being spent and may continue being unwound. Investors are looking on with greater scrutiny.
GBP PRICE, NEWS AND ANALYSIS:Chinese trade data for March exceeded expectations, boosting market sentiment generally.GBP is one of the beneficiaries, along with other ‘risk-on’ currencies including AUD and NZD.Now, 1.30 is in the frame as a long-term target for GBP/USD.GBP/USD EXTENDS ADVANCERisk-on currencies including GBP, AUD and NZD are advancing against the USD after the latest Chinese trade data showed exports and imports both exceeding the expectations of analysts polled by the news agencies. The numbers showed exports down 6.6% in March, rather than the forecast -13.9%, and imports lower by 0.9% rather than the predicted -9.8%.Along with hopes that the coronavirus pandemic may be close to peaking, the start of measures being eased in countries like Austria and Spain, and central bank and government stimulus, a ray of optimism has returned. That has extended the climb in GBP/USD that began three weeks ago, bringing the early March high above 1.30 into focus as a long-term target.GBP/USD PRICE CHART, FOUR-HOUR TIMEFRAME (MARCH 4 – APRIL 14, 2020)
EURO OUTLOOK, DAX INDEX, IMF WORD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, IMF GLOBAL FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT – TALKING POINTSEuro, DAX index could face selling pressure if IMF outlook spooks European marketsCoronavirus pandemic threatening to undermine regional financial, economic stabilityDAX index has experienced a recovery but remains down over 20 percent year-to-dateASIA-PACIFIC RECAPUS equity futures aimed higher along with Asia-Pacific stocks in what appeared to be a “risk-on” tilt in investors’ mood. This was also reflected in currency markets where the anti-risk US Dollar and Japanese Yen fell while their growth-oriented counterparts – the Australian and New Zealand Dollars – strengthened. This also followed better-than-expected Chinese trade data.EURO, DAX MAY FALL ON IMF WEO AND GFSRThe Euro and DAX may fall if the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Economic Outlook (WEO) and Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) reports inspire a selloff in the already-battered currency and index. While Eurozone finance ministers were able to reach an agreement on stimulus, unresolved political rifts may soon haunt the region at a time when it faces a crisis worse than what it had endured in 2008.Year-to-date, the Euro has fallen almost three percent and is trading at a multi-year low with the German DAX equity index down over 20 percent. The coronavirus pandemic has exposed underlying issues in the Eurozone both financially and economically that are now requiring unprecedented efforts on the part of governments and the European Central Bank (ECB) to address.The IMF’s assessment – particularly as it relates to financial stability – could inspire a selloff in the Euro and growth-oriented assets in the region if the institution’s outlook undermines confidence in a smooth recovery. Concern about the cross-continental so-called leveraged loan market has stirred investors’ angst in recent months with policymakers warning of another possible regional debt crisis.
Overall, EUR/USD is ranging across. Recently, EUR/USD tested but failed to break below 1.09.EUR/USD’s next support level is at 1.08000 and the next resistance level is at 1.10000.
EURO ANALYSIS, EUR/USD, FRENCH PRESIDENT EMMANUEL MACRON, CORONAVIRUS– TALKING POINTSThe Euro could suffer if Macron extends French coronavirus lockdownOther states may mimic second-largest Eurozone economy’s decisionEUR/USD broke out of compression zone but gains could be cappedASIA-PACIFIC RECAPInitially, crude oil prices and US equity futures pointed higher after OPEC struck an historic production cut agreement over the weekend. However, what appeared to be a flicker of optimism initially quickly deteriorated into a risk-off tilt as growth-oriented assets turned lower. Asia-Pacific equities were generally mixed while the Japanese Yen edged higher against its G10 counterparts.EURO EYES FRENCH PRESIDENT EMMANUEL MACRON EASTER SPEECHThe Euro may fall if French President Emmanuel Macron hints at extending the lockdown to curb the spread of the coronavirus. The prospect of a prolonged period of weaker consumption and higher unemployment because of shelter-in-place orders in the second-largest Eurozone economy could send a chilling message across the region.Other states may follow out of concern that a premature opening could risk a second wave of contagion. While Eurozone finance ministers were able to make some progress on a unified agreement for stimulus, additional may be needed if the shelter-in-place orders are extended. The main elements of the emergency package include revised credit lines from the ESM and a new 100 billion euro unemployment insurance policy.But the debate on how to deal with spending and structural issues after the coronavirus crisis is dealt with remain at the back of everyone’s minds. Learn more about market-moving political rifts here.EUR/USD PRICE CHARTEUR/USD has broken above resistance labelled as “Downtrend Alpha” and out of the compression zone. However, the victory for Euro bulls may be short-lived as the pair mounts to challenge former support-turned-resistance between 1.0981 and 1.0989. If EUR/USD capitulates, it may instill a sense of discouragement and pressure the pair to retesting support at 1.0783.
JAPANESE YEN, AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR, NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR TALKING POINTS:Stocks slipped in a holiday thinned start to the weekRisk aversion was notable as earnings season loomsCrude oil prices were up but below the highs reached on news of production cuts.A new Asia Pacific trading week started off with risk aversion in the ascendant as investors fretted the likely heavy hit to corporate earnings dealt by the coronavirus’ awful spread. The anti-risk Japanese Yen made gains, while the growth-correlated Australian and New Zealand Dollars took an early hit, admittedly in markets thinned by Easter Monday holidays which saw major centers like Sydney and Hong Kong out of the game.Open stock markets were lower, with the Nikkei 225 down more than 1% and the Kospi off by 0.75%. US stock futures also pointed lower.Oil prices climbed on news that the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies in the so-called ’OPEC Plus’ group had agreed production cuts, apparently ending the ruinous dispute on the subject which threatened to flood the market with cheap crude oil. Still, it’s by no means certain that such a flood would have been a bad thing in a world reeling from coronavirus, and end-demand for energy remains under heavy clouds. The bloc which includes Russia has agreed on reduction of 9.7 million barrels per day.Goldman Sachs has already reportedly called the reductions too little and too late and still sees downside risk to its $20/barrel 2020 forecast, fearing that storage capacity will still be overwhelmed.US earnings season will kick off this week, with first quarter performances from the major banks in focus. With interest rates now cut back to the bone all over the world profitability will be under the microscope.Given all of the above it’s hardly surprising that the markets should have endured a cautious open. USD/JPY headed lower early but found Dollar bulls ready US crude oil prices have also risen on Monday but they remain well below the $31/barrel level hit in the immediate aftermath of the news that production cuts had been agreed.to defend psychological support at 108.00.
US DOLLAR, SINGAPORE DOLLAR, INDONESIAN RUPIAH, MALAYSIAN RINGGIT - TALKING POINTSASEAN countries step up FX intervention amid the coronavirus outbreakAs they did this, pairs like USD/SGD, USD/IDR and USD/MYR stabilizedInvestors may scrutinize central bank FX reserves when sentiment soursUSD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/MYR CLOSELY EYEING FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVESAs the haven-linked US Dollar aggressively appreciated amid the coronavirus outbreak, ASEAN central banks stepped up FX intervention efforts to help stem selling pressure in their currencies. A great way to measure the vigor of their actions is by looking at foreign exchange reserves. Lately pairs such as USD/SGD, USD/IDR and USD/MYR have given back recent gains, perhaps suggesting that these efforts are working.On the chart below, foreign exchange reserves have been declining in ASEAN nations such as Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. In fact those in Malaysia dipped to US$101.7 billion in March which was the lowest since the beginning of 2019. Indonesian FX reserves fell to US$120.97 billion last month which was the smallest since May 2019. Singapore levels have also turned cautiously lower.China – the world’s largest holder of foreign exchange reserves - has also been spending its fair share. Their holdings declined by $46.1 billion last month which was the most aggressive pace since the end of 2016. When central banks spend their international reserves – which are mostly held in US Dollars - they can use them to purchase domestic FX and boost prices. This can go on so long as their holdings are not fully depleted.Granted, there has been a material shift in market sentiment since the end of last month. A combination of aggressive fiscal and monetary easing efforts from nations across the world to help stabilize economic health appears to be working thus far. But investors can become nervous in the event that risk aversion resurfaces and look at levels of FX reserve depletion with greater scrutiny.
Eurozone Faces Severe Recession in Economy; signs of a rebound may show up in the third quarter, but the economy won't recover completely until 2021.EURUSD daily pivot point: 1.0935 S1: 1.0919 R1: 1.0951 S2: 1.0902 R2: 1.0967
After hesitating in the previous week, gold prices soared in these last few days, with spot gold trading as high as $ 1,690.23 a troy ounce, to close the week less than $ 10.00 below this last. The bright metal gained the most on Thursday, following the US Federal Reserve decision to announce another round on massive easing, this time in the form of loans of up to $2.3 trillion.Following the announcement, US Federal Reserve Chief Powell offered a speech afterwards and reaffirmed that the central bank would continue to use all available tools to support the American economy until it recovers. Concerned about the high levels of unemployment the US may reach, Powell was overall confident that the situation will revert as soon as the pandemic is under control.Gold futures, in the meantime, reached a 7.5 year high around $1,750.00 a troy ounce after the announcement, as the ongoing pandemic-related crisis, keeps fueling demand for the safe-haven metal. With the world’s economies in pause, fears or recession loom, hence, demand for gold will likely persist.Excess of liquidity and shortage of physical goldMeanwhile, gold supply remains subdued. This past week, several Swill refineries re-opened, but global demand keeps rising. And as central banks have turned on the printing machine, much of the excess of liquidity has already a place to go.The extend of the global economic damage caused by the pandemic is yet to be seen, although nobody doubts it will be long and painful. In this scenario, gold is meant to keep on rallying.More hints on how the pandemic is hitting the world will be out next week, as the US will report March Retail Sales, and Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended March 3.Spot Gold Technical OutlookTrading at around 1,680, spot gold is close to the multi-year high set early Mach at 1.703.18. The commodity is bullish, with technicals aligned with fundamentals.The weekly chart shows that it bottomed at around the 61.8% retracement of its latest weekly slump, at 1,606.60. It has continued to develop far above all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA accelerating north. Technical indicators have resumed their advances within positive levels, although they lack enough strength to confirm a steeper advance.In the daily chart, the Momentum indicator is partially losing its bullish strength in overbought levels, while the RSI maintains its strength upward at around 63. The 20 DMA has turned back north, although it’s barely picking up after trending lower for the past 5-weeks. Anyway, the larger moving averages maintain their bullish slopes.The weekly high at 1,690 is the immediate resistance ahead of 1,703. Beyond this last, 1,795.80, the high from October 2012, comes at sight. Supports for the upcoming days come at 1,661 and the 1,640 price zone.
Technical OverviewEUR/USD faces the next key up barrier at the January’s low at 1.0992 ahead of the psychological 1.10 mark. Further up, the pair needs to surpass the critical 200-day SMA, today at 1.1060, in order to allow for a visit to recent peaks in the mid-1.1100s (March 27/30). In case sellers step in, the monthly/weekly low at 1.0768 (April 6) should emerge as an interim support ahead of the 2020 low at 1.0635 recorded in mid-March.Fundamental OverviewEUR/USD manages well to keep business in the upper end of the weekly range at the end of the week, always in a context of the renewed and moderate selling pressure in the buck and the positive outcome from the Eurogroup meetings.In fact, the recent deal clinched by the Eurogroup has mitigated political concerns that have re-surfaced following the effervescence between Holland-Germany and France-Italy-Spain, all regarding the joint efforts to fund the effects of the COVID-19 on some economies.Later in the day, the focus of attention is expected to be on the publication of US March’s inflation figures, although marginal volatility and flat trade conditions due to the Easter holidays could remove some significance from the release.
CANADIAN DOLLAR, LOONIE, USD/CAD TALKING POINTS:USD/CAD put in an aggressive breakout in March, and has since started to pullback.That bullish breakout stopped 21 pips shy of the 17-year-high.The ensuing snapback has grown in aggression, with price action now testing around the 1.4000 psychological level.
The USD/CAD broke back below 1.4000 for the first time in six sessions on Tuesday as the continuing dissolution of the US labor market failed to excite further risk-aversion fears and the Federal Reserve unveiled a $600 billion lending program for medium sized business part of a $2.3 trillion package to support local and state governments and companies with loans and securities purchases.OPEC and Russia agreed on a tentative production deal which would cut about 10 million barrels a day in May and June. Saudi Arabia and Russia, the largest producers, would reduce their output by 8.5 million a day and all members would cut their supply by 23%, according to news reports.The deal is conditional on Mexico’s approval. Energy Secretary Rocio Nahle Garcia said on Twitter after the Thursday meeting that her country is willing to reduce output by 100,000 barrels far less than the 400,000 assumed in the agreement.This attempt to support oil prices with supply restrictions is far larger than previous efforts by the cartel and is backed by US President Trump. North American shale companies are under severe financial pressure from the more than 50% collapse in crude prices this year. Production costs in the shale fields are generally higher than the more traditional extraction in the Middle East and Siberia.Signs that the pandemic is easing in the US and Europe improved risk sentiment throughout the week. The USD/CAD fell 1.8% and is back to the level of mid-March before the most aggressive Coronavirus inspired fears drove the pair to 1.4668 on March 19, the highest price in four years and the second highest since 2003. The euro gained 1.3% versus the dollar on the week and the USD/JPY was static opening at 108.53 and closing just 10 points lower, though it was down from Monday’s 109.38 high.USD/CAD outlookEconomic damage around the world from the public health measures instituted to cope with the Coronavirus has taken concrete shape with the astonishing US and Canadian jobs losses.In the US almost 17 million people, 10% of the workforce, have filed for unemployment insurance in the last three weeks. In Canada one million workers lost their positions in March and the unemployment rate jumped to 7.8% from 5.6%, its highest since February 2011.Market risk is a matter of perception. In the ascending phase of the crisis in early March the extent of the pandemic and its economic effects were largely unknown but subject to the worst interpretations. The US dollar and US assets were, as they have always been, the refuge of choice. The actual job losses in the US and Canada were far higher than expected but they are now known instead of conjecture and if the knowledge is not reassuring is quantifiable.Five factors began to tilt the risk balance away from the US dollar and toward the loonie this week. First, the pandemic has started to moderate in several countries in a fashion that may predict its end. Second, infection, hospitalization and fatality rates in the US are proving to have been widely exaggerated when compared to real numbers and the models have been adjusted lower by large multiples. Third, government support programs from Washington and Ottawa and the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada have restored market confidence in the functioning of the financial system and, more hopefully, that some of the economic pain from closures can be mitigated. Fourth, talk in DC is slowly shifting to how and when to reopen the economy. Fifth, the OPEC production deal, if approved, should put a floor under crude prices until the reviving global economy increases demand.None of these developments are assured but if they continue the US dollar’s risk premium, in general and against the Canadian in particular, will slowly drain away and the stage will be set for Dollar Canada to return to pre-crisis levels.The USD/CAD is supported at 1.3950, 1.3800 and 1.3660 but the rapid nature of the price movement in the last month and the fundamental motivation means that these levels will not endure much pressure. The same stipulations apply to the resistance lines at 1.4075, 1.4180, 1.4300 and 1.4380.
Pound/dollar was somewhat shocked – like the British public and the rest of the world – by Prime Minister Boris Johnson's admission to intensive care amid complications of COVID-19. Cases and deaths of the disease continue mounting in the UK, US, and elsewhere, and lockdowns are likely to continue weighing on the economies.This week in GBP/USD: Leadership vacuum amid the peak of the crisisBeing in intensive care is never good news – the report that PM Johnson's condition deteriorated weighed on the pound, and so did the initial release of his hospitalization. Calming words from Downing Street – such as that he does not need ventilation – failed to unnerve traders. Johnson has been elected in a landslide majority only in December and had considerable political clout, and his absence in a national crisis is worrying. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab is deputizing for him and running the day to day operations, but it is unclear how far he can go with big decisions. Raab, a former lawyer, and a hard-Brexiteer previously competed for the job and is experienced in government. However, the UK's management of the crisis has already come under criticism, first for letting the virus run and later for the lack of tests. Having a less-experienced and less popular interim leader in place is yet another factor weighing on confidence. The death toll from coronavirus continues rising and souring the mood, especially as the University of Washington forecast that the UK may suffer 66,000 mortalities. In the US, the curve also refuses to flatten significantly, with the states of New York and New Jersey suffering rapid spreads. Other parts of the country are not as hard hit for now, and President Donald Trump is considering opening up some parts of the economy. Trump is also warming up to add stimulus to the economy, mulled by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Another $1 trillion in expenditure to mitigate the economic effects of coronavirus is under consideration. The reports pushed stocks higher at some point and weighed on the dollar. US jobless claims disappointed once again with over 6 million – yet markets jumped as the Federal Reserve announced a new scheme at the exact same time. The Fed laid out several new schemes that total $2.3 in loans. The new bazooka from Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues sent stocks up and the dollar down. UK events: Johnson's health, lockdown extension, economic measuresAt the time of writing, the PM's condition remains stable, but he has not left intensive care. Any update on Johnson may move markets and overwhelm other events. The longer he stays in the hospital, the more significant the pressure on the pound. The UK is set to extend its lockdown for several weeks – at least until a peak in cases can be seen in the rearview mirror. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab will likely have to take that decision, based on medical experts' advice and alongside his peers in the cabinet. Former health minister Jeremy Hunt suggested that significant restrictions may be extended for at least a month.The shuttering is taking a substantial toll on the economy, and the public is playing along. However, criticism may increase if testing for COVID-19 cases remains limited. Raab may find himself in a tricky situation and without the necessary political capital to deal with an escalation of the crisis.See Coronavirus Exit Strategy: Three critical factors to watch and how they impact currenciesOne option that has been aired is a government of national unity. Keir Starmer, a moderate, has been elected leader and may join forces with the Conservatives amid the deterioration and as long as the PM remains away from Downing Street. Such a move, which is in its infancy, may boost the pound. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak – who would take over if Raab becomes sick – may introduce additional measures to help struggling businesses and workers, and the unemployed if lockdowns are extended. That would also be positive for the pound. The only noteworthy economic release is the British Retail Consortium's Retail Sales figure for March. It will likely reflect a leap as Brits stockpiled ahead of the lockdown.Here is the list of UK events from the FXStreet calendar:UK macro economic events April 13 17 2020US events: Potential restriction easing and consumer dataHas the US coronavirus crisis peaked or not? That question will likely be on the top of the agenda and may see a struggle between health officials and the White House. Trump would like to return to normal as soon as possible, to boost the economy and his reelection chances.However, Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIH), said it is time to intensify efforts, not loosen them. In any case, the decision mostly rests with state governors. The longer the shutdowns last, the worse for the economy and stocks – and better for the safe-haven dollar.Governors will likely make decisions according to the health situation in their states so that the daily updates may have the most substantial impact on currencies. The epicenter has been New York, but with some signs of peaking, the focus may move to other places in America. Retail sales for March stand out, and they may show a discrepancy between the headline figure and core numbers. Overall, shopping may have risen – or at least not collapsed – as Americans were stocking up on supplies. However, excluding volatile items, expenditure has likely dropped amid massive layoffs. It is also essential to note that the figures have unlikely captured the full extent of the economic damage in March, and the whole picture will be available only with revisions due in the following report. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book – usually a "gray" document – will shed some light on what central bankers here from businesses and the picture will likely be gloomy. The publication precedes the next Fed decision.Weekly jobless claims remain a wildcard, with figures in the millions, but likely without a clear consensus. This publication, for the week ending on April 10, is the first one where the four-week rolling average will have already captured four consecutive reports in the millions. The smoothed-out indicator will likely provide a baseline for the employment situation.
GOLD TECHNICAL PRICE OUTLOOK: XAU/USD WEEKLY TRADE LEVELSGold priceupdated technical trade levels - Weekly ChartXAU/USD surges into weekly uptrend resistance – weekly close in focusNew to Gold Trading? Get started with this Free How to Trade Gold -Beginners GuideGold prices surged nearly 4% this week with the XAU/USD rally testing uptrend resistance ahead of the extended holiday break. While the broader outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable IF price closes below this threshold. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the gold weekly chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this XAU/USD trade setup and more.Notes: In my last Gold Weekly PriceOutlook we noted that the XAU/USD rally was, “testing the first major resistance hurdle here at the yearly high-close. From a trading standpoint, the advance remains vulnerable while below this threshold.” The level in focus was 1673 – price is trading above this level in early New York trade on Thursday with parallel resistance catching the intraday highs for now. We’re looking for a reaction up here.A close below slope resistance would leave the advance vulnerable heading into the extended holiday break. Initial support rests at the January highs at 1611 backed by 1586 and the April open at 1574- now medium-term bullish invalidation. A topside breach from here exposes subsequent resistance objectives at the yearly swing high at 1703 and the 78.6% retracement / pitchfork resistance at 1733/37 – look for a larger reaction there IF reached.Bottom line: The gold price rally is testing uptrend resistance and the focus is on the weekly close with respect to this slope. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops. While the broader outlook remains constructive, be on the lookout for possible near-term exhaustion here IF price holds below this trendline – ultimately, a larger pullback may offer more favorable entries with a breach of the highs exposing longer-term technical resistance above 1730. Review my latest Gold Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trading levels.GOLD TRADER SENTIMENT – XAU/USD PRICE CHARTA summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +3.04 (75.26% of traders are long) – bearishreadingLong positions are11.29% higher than yesterday and 10.13% higher from last weekShort positions are0.65% higher than yesterday and 1.52% higher from last weekWe typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
Overall, USD/JPY is trending upwards. Recently, USD/JPY has been ranging across.Currently, USD/JPY is testing the support level of 108.500 and the next resistance level is at 110.000.
Overall, NZD/USD is ranging across. Recently, NZD/USD moved higher, breaking the resistance level of 0.60300.New Zealand banks will be closed on Monday in observance of Easter Monday. Lower trading volume and volatility is expected during the New Zealand trading session.NZD/USD’s next support level is at 0.60300 and the next resistance level is at 0.62200.
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