MAJOR OIL TRADER’S COLLAPSE, RISK APPETITE. TALKING POINTS:Oil trading giant Hin Leong has filed for bankruptcy protectionMarkets are now weighing the exposure of its lendersEnergy prices’ collapse seems to have claimed a major playerIn every major crisis there comes a point at which weakening economic numbers translate into corporate scalps and the nodal Singapore energy market has reached that point. Its biggest oil trading firm Hin Leong Trading has filed for bankruptcy protection, seeking to restructure nearly $4 billion in debt.If course, the energy sector has taken an unprecedent hit. The coronavirus has shredded energy-demand forecasts even as major producers saturate the market with cheap oil. Oil prices have collapsed to lows not seen since 2001, even after major production cuts which have so far done nothing to revive it.
Market analysis：BTCUSD Live Trend Alert 18/04/2020 22:55 UTC #Forex #EagleFX https://eaglefx.com/news/btcusd-live-trend-alert-18-04-2020-2255-utc/
Market analysis：Canadian Dollar Sinks as Crude Oil Prices and Stocks Drop http://dlvr.it/RV4QB0 | http://bit.ly/fxtrade1 #forex #forextrader
Market analysis：Overall, GBP/USD is trending upwards. Recently, GBP/USD has been ranging between the support level of 1.24400 and the key level of 1.35.GBP/USD’s next support level is at 1.24400 and the next resistance level is at 1.26000.
Market analysis：Overall, USD/CAD is trending downwards. Recently, USD/CAD bounced off the support level of 1.39800.Currently, USD/CAD is moving towards the key level of 1.41. Its next support level is at 1.39800 and the next resistance level is at 1.42250.
Market analysis：Overall, EUR/USD is ranging across. Recently, EUR/USD bounced off the support level of 1.08000.The eurozone Final CPI y/y data released last Friday was as forecasted.- Final CPI y/y (Actual: 0.7%, Forecast: 0.7%, Previous: 0.7%)- Final Core CPI y/y (Actual: 1.0%, Forecast: 1.0%, Previous: 1.0%)EUR/USD’s next support level is at 1.08000 and the next resistance level is at 1.10000.
Market analysis：Overall, USD/JPY is trending downwards. Recently, USD/JPY has been ranging across within the support level of 107.300 and the key level of 108.USD/JPY’s next support level is at 107.300 and the next resistance level is at 109.000.
Market analysis：Last Friday, USD weakened against all major currencies after a risk-on mentality of market participants was sparked by President Trump’s announcement that some parts of the U.S. will be opening up, allowing some states and employers to drop most social distancing practices within four weeks.Also, positive partial data from experimental drug trials on severely ill Covid-19 patients at the University of Chicago hospital was reported by a health-oriented news website last Friday, creating an optimistic view on a possible vaccine.
Market analysis：Overall, NZD/USD is trending upwards. Recently, NZD/USD moved higher, breaking above the key level of 0.60.The New Zealand CPI q/q data (Actual: 0.8%, Forecast: 0.4%, Previous: 0.5%) released earlier today was better than forecasted.Currently, NZD/USD is bouncing off the key level of 0.60. Its next support level is at 0.58400 and the next resistance level is at 0.61000.
Market analysis：Overall, AUD/USD is trending upwards. Recently, AUD/USD has been ranging across.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be releasing the minutes for this month’s monetary policy meeting tomorrow at 0930 (SGT).RBA Governor will be delivering a speech tomorrow at 1300 (SGT). During this time, volatility is expected of AUD.AUD/USD’s next support level is at 0.61800 and the next resistance level is at 0.64200.
Market analysis：The USD/CAD is supported at 1.3950, 1.3875 and 1.3780 with resistance lines at 1.4110, 1.4200 and 1.4360 from price action over the past month. Though the volatility has been high since the global onset of the virus in early March, price action has begun to establish levels of interest and the longer the USD/CAD remains in these ranges the greater the chance that transitory developments will be contained there.
Market analysis：Support awaits at the recent lows of 1.0815. It is followed by 1.0760, April's trough, and then by 1.0640, the 2020 low. The next levels to watch are 1.0580, 1.0460, and 1.0360.Resistance is at 1.0995, which is April's high level. It is followed by 1.11, a high point in February. The swing high of 1.1150 and 1.12 are next.
EURO TECHNICAL PRICE OUTLOOK: EUR/USD WEEKLY TRADE LEVELSEuro updated technical trade levels & sentiment – Weekly ChartEUR/USD in consolidation within April monthly opening-rangeCritical support at 1.0657 – breach above 1.1187 needed to shift broader focus higher.
Market analysis：The pound has been sluggish lately, and the following 2 factors, among others, have played a crucial role in the pound’s continuous decline.1.Brexit uncertainties remainBrexit trade talks have been halted due to the global pandemic, and combined with the remark of government spokesman Slack on Thursday that Britain will not extend the transition period of Brexit, investors doubt that the two sides will be able to settle the Brexit trade deal before the end of this year.2.Investment sentiment has deterioratedWith the temporary stock market rally that lasted just 2 weeks, the constantly shrinking economic indicators and the gloomy global economic outlook projected by major investment banks and financial institutions, the severe impacts of lockdown measures on business activities have begun to show, while market optimism was dampened as well. Britain has a well-developed financial service industry and London is a widely acknowledged global
Also, the DXY Index appears to have found technical support around the 99.00 price level, which is highlighted by the confluence of its 50-day simple moving average, October 2019 swing high, and mid-point retracement of last month’s bullish leg. From a fundamental perspective, the latest coronavirus developments have likely rekindled demand for safe-haven currencies and US Dollar dominance. Specifically, investor risk appetite soured on the back of news that several countries are prolonging their coronavirus lockdown.
Market participants have already started to show signs that their recent influx of coronavirus optimism has waned. This is indicated by a pop in the VIX Index, or ‘fear-gauge,’ which happens to mirror a spike in implied currency volatility. Ominously, the recent uptick in expected FX volatility and S&P 500 volatility seems to resemble the volatility explosion traders witnessed throughout February and March.
A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +1.72 (63.26% of traders are long) – bearishreadingLong positions are 17.19% lower than yesterday and 1.10% higher from last weekShort positions are 0.21% higher than yesterday and 38.94% higher from last weekWe typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week and the recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Price Outlook we noted that the XAU/USD rally was vulnerable heading into the close of March trade and that, “ultimately a larger pullback may offer more favorable entries with a breach of the highs needed to keep long-bias viable.” Price plummeted more than 5% to register a low at 1560 before ripping to fresh yearly highs into the April open.The advance failed at slope resistance this week with price unable to mount a daily close above the 78.6% retracement of the decline from the record highs at 1733. Initial daily support rests at the March high-day close at 1678 backed by the median-line / 38.2% retracement of the yearly range at 1633- look for a larger reaction there If reached. Key support / bullish invalidation now rests at 1564/85.
Notes: A closer look at Gold price action sees XAU/USD trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork formation extending off the March lows. A reversal off the upper parallel has price testing the weekly opening-range lows / median-line in early New York trade on Friday- look to the break for guidance with the broader advance at risk sub-1732 into the close of the week. A topside breach / close above the weekly highs needed to fuel the next leg higher in price with such a scenario eyeing subsequent resistance objectives at the 2012 high at 1795
EURO TECHNICAL PRICE OUTLOOK: EUR/USD WEEKLY TRADE LEVELSEuro updated technical trade levels & sentiment – Weekly ChartEUR/USD in consolidation within April monthly opening-rangeCritical support at 1.0657 – breach above 1.1187 needed to shift broader focus higherEuro is down nearly 0.6% against the US Dollar this week with EUR/USD trading at 1.0880 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The focus remains on a break of the April opening-range with price continuing to contract within the confines of well-defined technical levels. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro trade setup and moreNotes:In my most recent Euro Weekly Price Outlook we highlighted that the, “The immediate focus is on a break of the 1.0777-1.0977 range for guidance,” with our broader outlook still dependent on a hold above the March 2017 high-week close at 1.0657. A weekly reversal this week keeps price within the confines of the April opening-range heading into the close with Euro currently holding just above the 61.8% retracement of the late-March rally at 1.0831.Initial support steady at 1.0778 with a breach above 1.0976 needed to fuel the next leg higher in price towards key resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci confluence zone at 1.1167/87 – a breach / close above this threshold would suggest a more significant low was registered last month with such a scenario exposing subsequent resistance objectives at the 100% extension at 1.1280 and the June 2019 high-day close at 1.1367. A weekly close below 1.0657 is needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend towards the 2017 low-week close at 1.0532.
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