Last Friday, USD weakened against all major currencies after a risk-on mentality of market participants was sparked by President Trump’s announcement that some parts of the U.S. will be opening up, allowing some states and employers to drop most social distancing practices within four weeks.Also, positive partial data from experimental drug trials on severely ill Covid-19 patients at the University of Chicago hospital was reported by a health-oriented news website last Friday, creating an optimistic view on a possible vaccine.
Market analysis：The U.S. dollar pushed higher Monday, as investors braced for more dire news on the fallout from the coronavirus.At 2:55 AM ET (0655 GMT), the U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, stood at 100.058, up 0.2%, while GBP/USD fell 0.3% to 1.2464. USD/JPY climbed 0.3% to 107.86.
CRUDE OIL AND GOLD TALKING POINTS:Crude oil prices sank as the prospect of huge supply meeting very limited demand glowered over the marketImminent May futures contract expiry didn’t helpGold prices inched higher through the session and remain well supported despite a break of their recent uptrendUS crude oil prices plummeted in Monday’s Asia Pacific morning as the market continued to worry about a coronavirus-related collapse in demand even as supplies remain ample despite production cuts.The price of West Texas Intermediate for May delivery fell to $15.43/barrel, with the futures contract due to expire this week for that month. Prices are now at lows which haven’t been seen for more than twenty years.
GOLD PRICE TALKING POINTSGold continues to pull back from the yearly high ($1748) even though the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global growth to contract 3.0% in 2020, and the price for bullion may face a larger correction as it carves a series of lower highs and lows.GOLD PRICE CARVES LOWER HIGHS AND LOWS AMID PLANS TO REOPEN US ECONOMYThe price of gold fails to test the November 2012 high ($1754)as the Trump administration outlines a three-phased approach to reopen the US economy, and the bullish momentum may continue to abate over the coming days as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reverses course ahead of overbought territory.Hopes of a V-shaped recovery appear to be dampening the appeal of gold as St. Louis Fed President James Bullard insists that “it is entirely possible and feasible we can get past the crisis mostly in the second quarter,” and a growing number of Federal Reserve officials may adopt an improved outlook as the central bank takes unprecedented steps to combat the economic shock from COVID-19.However, New York Fed President John Williams, a permanent voting-member on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), warns of a protracted recovery as “it's going to take longer to get us back to where we want to be.” Mr. Williams went onto say that “I don't see the economy being back to full strength by the end of the year”during an interview with CNBC, and the weakening outlook for growth may force the FOMC to retain a dovish forward guidance at its next interest rate decision on April 29 as the IMF sees the US economy contracting 5.9% in 2020.It remains to be seen if the FOMC will continue to push monetary policy into uncharted territory as the committee “remainscommitted to using its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses to counter the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic,” but the unprecedented response may ultimately lead to unintended consequences as the Fed relies on its balance sheet to cushion the US economy.With that said, the low interest rate environment may continue to act as a backstop for goldas marketparticipants look for an alternative to fiat-currencies, and the broader outlook for bullion remains constructive as the reaction to the former-resistance zone around $1450 (38.2% retracement) to $1452 (100% expansion) helped to rule out the threat of a Head-and-Shoulders formation, with a similar scenario arising in March as the price of gold reversed course from the monthly low ($1451).However, the price of bullion may continue to pullback from the yearly high ($1748) as it initiates a series of lower highs and lows, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reverses course ahead of overbought territory.
HOW TO TRADE 2020 BITCOIN HALVINGLeading up to and following a Bitcoin halving, markets frequently witnessed high periods of volatility. However, price swings may be tamed by traders who have priced in the anticipated change and positioned themselves ahead of it. Since Bitcoin’s inception in 2009, there have been two halvings occurring at four-year intervals – on November 28, 2012 and July 9, 2016.Bitcoin prices rose approximately 18 percent in the month before the halvings of 2012 and 2016. They added an additional 8 percent after the first instance but fell 16 percent following the second one. Volatility this year may be particularly difficult to gauge because of two opposing forces that could amplify or dampen high-magnitude price swings.
US DOLLAR ASEAN WEEKLY RECAPThe US Dollar mostly aimed higher this past week against ASEAN currencies such as the Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit and Philippine Peso. It lost ground however to the Indonesian Rupiah, resulting in an overall down week for my ASEAN-based US Dollar index. Weakness in the haven-linked Greenback notably slowed as of late despite a cautiously optimistic mood on Wall Street as equities rose over the past 5 days.The resilience in the Rupiah comes amid upbeat commentary from Bank of Indonesia’s Governor Perry Warjiyo who mentioned last week that intervention needs “have been largely reduced”. As I mentioned prior, the USD continued to focusing on external developments to find direction against currencies in the developing Asia Pacific region. This will likely continue being the case in the week ahead.LAST WEEK’S US DOLLAR PERFORMANCEUS Dollar Fundamental Outlook: SGD, IDR, MYR, PHP Focus on EarningsASEAN-Based US Dollar Index averages USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/MYR and USD/IDRConfirmed coronavirus case growth in Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines has been slowing on average. The weekly chart below overlays these cases alongside my ASEAN-based US Dollar index. The latter averages USD against SGD, MYR, IDR and PHP. This is also following the cautious easing in global reports such as in countries like the United States, Italy and France.
CANADIAN DOLLAR, CRUDE OIL, US DOLLAR, STOCKS, EARNINGS - TALKING POINTS:Canadian Dollar down as crude oil, stocks drop to start the weekAnxiety ahead of key Q1 earnings reports maybe risk-off catalystUS Dollar buoyed by haven demand, anti-fiat gold prices lowerThe Canadian Dollar led the way lower among its G10 FX counterparts financial markets started the trading week in a defensive mood. Bellwether S&P 500 futures fell – pointing to a broadly risk-off disposition – as financial markets. Crude oil prices sank to the lowest level since 2001, which probably explains some of the Loonie’s outsized losses. The haven US Dollar traded broadly higher, pressuring anti-fiat gold prices.Investors’ dour disposition may reflect anxiety ahead of a busy week for corporate earnings report that look set to paint a bleak picture of the damage wrought by the coronavirus outbreak. Perhaps most worryingly for cyclical assets like stocks and commodity-linked currencies, early signs of stabilization in the Covid-19 infections tally may be shifting the markets’ focus to the outbreak’s long-term economic impact.
AUD/USD RATE RETAINS ASCENDING CHANNEL FORMATION AHEAD OF RBA MINUTESAUD/USD continues to track the upward trending channel carried over from the previous month as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) abandons the dovish forward guidance for monetary policy, and the minutes from the April meeting may heighten the appeal of the Australian Dollar if the central bank tames speculation for additional monetary support.The update to Australia’s Employment report may encourage the RBA to adopt an improved outlook as the economy unexpectedly adds 5.9K jobs in March, and Governor Philip Lowe and Co. may continue to change their tune over the coming months as officials insist that “smaller and less frequent purchases of government bonds will be required” if market conditions continue to improve.The unprecedented efforts taken by monetary and well as fiscal authorities should help to curb the slowdown in economic activity, but the RBA may come under pressure to further support the economy as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sees global growth contracting 3.0% in 2020.
MAJOR OIL TRADER’S COLLAPSE, RISK APPETITE. TALKING POINTS:Oil trading giant Hin Leong has filed for bankruptcy protectionMarkets are now weighing the exposure of its lendersEnergy prices’ collapse seems to have claimed a major playerIn every major crisis there comes a point at which weakening economic numbers translate into corporate scalps and the nodal Singapore energy market has reached that point. Its biggest oil trading firm Hin Leong Trading has filed for bankruptcy protection, seeking to restructure nearly $4 billion in debt.If course, the energy sector has taken an unprecedent hit. The coronavirus has shredded energy-demand forecasts even as major producers saturate the market with cheap oil. Oil prices have collapsed to lows not seen since 2001, even after major production cuts which have so far done nothing to revive it.
Market analysis：BTCUSD Live Trend Alert 18/04/2020 22:55 UTC #Forex #EagleFX https://eaglefx.com/news/btcusd-live-trend-alert-18-04-2020-2255-utc/
Market analysis：Canadian Dollar Sinks as Crude Oil Prices and Stocks Drop http://dlvr.it/RV4QB0 | http://bit.ly/fxtrade1 #forex #forextrader
Market analysis：Overall, GBP/USD is trending upwards. Recently, GBP/USD has been ranging between the support level of 1.24400 and the key level of 1.35.GBP/USD’s next support level is at 1.24400 and the next resistance level is at 1.26000.
Market analysis：Overall, USD/CAD is trending downwards. Recently, USD/CAD bounced off the support level of 1.39800.Currently, USD/CAD is moving towards the key level of 1.41. Its next support level is at 1.39800 and the next resistance level is at 1.42250.
Market analysis：Overall, EUR/USD is ranging across. Recently, EUR/USD bounced off the support level of 1.08000.The eurozone Final CPI y/y data released last Friday was as forecasted.- Final CPI y/y (Actual: 0.7%, Forecast: 0.7%, Previous: 0.7%)- Final Core CPI y/y (Actual: 1.0%, Forecast: 1.0%, Previous: 1.0%)EUR/USD’s next support level is at 1.08000 and the next resistance level is at 1.10000.
Market analysis：Overall, USD/JPY is trending downwards. Recently, USD/JPY has been ranging across within the support level of 107.300 and the key level of 108.USD/JPY’s next support level is at 107.300 and the next resistance level is at 109.000.
Market analysis：Last Friday, USD weakened against all major currencies after a risk-on mentality of market participants was sparked by President Trump’s announcement that some parts of the U.S. will be opening up, allowing some states and employers to drop most social distancing practices within four weeks.Also, positive partial data from experimental drug trials on severely ill Covid-19 patients at the University of Chicago hospital was reported by a health-oriented news website last Friday, creating an optimistic view on a possible vaccine.
Market analysis：Overall, NZD/USD is trending upwards. Recently, NZD/USD moved higher, breaking above the key level of 0.60.The New Zealand CPI q/q data (Actual: 0.8%, Forecast: 0.4%, Previous: 0.5%) released earlier today was better than forecasted.Currently, NZD/USD is bouncing off the key level of 0.60. Its next support level is at 0.58400 and the next resistance level is at 0.61000.
Market analysis：Overall, AUD/USD is trending upwards. Recently, AUD/USD has been ranging across.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be releasing the minutes for this month’s monetary policy meeting tomorrow at 0930 (SGT).RBA Governor will be delivering a speech tomorrow at 1300 (SGT). During this time, volatility is expected of AUD.AUD/USD’s next support level is at 0.61800 and the next resistance level is at 0.64200.
Market analysis：The USD/CAD is supported at 1.3950, 1.3875 and 1.3780 with resistance lines at 1.4110, 1.4200 and 1.4360 from price action over the past month. Though the volatility has been high since the global onset of the virus in early March, price action has begun to establish levels of interest and the longer the USD/CAD remains in these ranges the greater the chance that transitory developments will be contained there.
Market analysis：Support awaits at the recent lows of 1.0815. It is followed by 1.0760, April's trough, and then by 1.0640, the 2020 low. The next levels to watch are 1.0580, 1.0460, and 1.0360.Resistance is at 1.0995, which is April's high level. It is followed by 1.11, a high point in February. The swing high of 1.1150 and 1.12 are next.
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