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    United States 2020-04-20 08:06:09
    Technical index Gold Price Carves Lower Highs and Lows Amid Plans


    Gold continues to pull back from the yearly high ($1748) even though the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global growth to contract 3.0% in 2020, and the price for bullion may face a larger correction as it carves a series of lower highs and lows.


    The price of gold fails to test the November 2012 high ($1754)as the Trump administration outlines a three-phased approach to reopen the US economy, and the bullish momentum may continue to abate over the coming days as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reverses course ahead of overbought territory.

    Hopes of a V-shaped recovery appear to be dampening the appeal of gold as St. Louis Fed President James Bullard insists that “it is entirely possible and feasible we can get past the crisis mostly in the second quarter,” and a growing number of Federal Reserve officials may adopt an improved outlook as the central bank takes unprecedented steps to combat the economic shock from COVID-19.

    However, New York Fed President John Williams, a permanent voting-member on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), warns of a protracted recovery as “it's going to take longer to get us back to where we want to be.” Mr. Williams went onto say that “I don't see the economy being back to full strength by the end of the year”during an interview with CNBC, and the weakening outlook for growth may force the FOMC to retain a dovish forward guidance at its next interest rate decision on April 29 as the IMF sees the US economy contracting 5.9% in 2020.

    It remains to be seen if the FOMC will continue to push monetary policy into uncharted territory as the committee “remainscommitted to using its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses to counter the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic,” but the unprecedented response may ultimately lead to unintended consequences as the Fed relies on its balance sheet to cushion the US economy.

    With that said, the low interest rate environment may continue to act as a backstop for goldas marketparticipants look for an alternative to fiat-currencies, and the broader outlook for bullion remains constructive as the reaction to the former-resistance zone around $1450 (38.2% retracement) to $1452 (100% expansion) helped to rule out the threat of a Head-and-Shoulders formation, with a similar scenario arising in March as the price of gold reversed course from the monthly low ($1451).

    However, the price of bullion may continue to pullback from the yearly high ($1748) as it initiates a series of lower highs and lows, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reverses course ahead of overbought territory.

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