Market analysis：Overall, USD/JPY is ranging across. Recently, USD/JPY moved lower, breaking below the key level of 108.USD/JPY’s next support level is at 106.800 and the next resistance level is at 108.500.
Market analysis：Yesterday, USD weakened against most major currencies except EUR and CHF.Yesterday, FOMC member Bostic said that the Federal Reserve is ready to provide more support to the U.S. economy if required.
Market analysis：Overall, NZD/USD is ranging across. Recently, NZD/USD moved higher, breaking above the key level of 0.61.Earlier today, New Zealand’s treasury department released its forecast, saying that the country’s unemployment rate could reach 25% if the Covid-19 lockdown measures are further extended beyond the initial end date of April 20. Whereas if lockdown is eased this month, unemployment rate would be around 13%.NZD/USD’s next support level is at 0.60300 and the next resistance level is at 0.62200.
Market analysis：Oil prices were up on Tuesday as an emergency OPEC+ meeting finalized a 9.7 million-barrel cut in daily production on Sunday, the largest in its history.International Brent Oil futures rose 1.13% to $32.27 by 9:48 PM ET (2:48 AM GMT) and U.S. Crude Oil WTI futures gained 1.87% to $.22.83.The cut will begin on May 1, decreasing to 7.7 million barrels from July until the end of the year. It will decrease further to 5.8 million barrels from January 2021 to April 2022. OPEC+ is scheduled to meet again on June 10 to discuss further action.
Market analysis：Wall Street was set to open lower on Monday after a strong rally last week, with investors bracing for an expected slide in quarterly earnings and signs of the lingering impact of the coronavirus outbreak on Corporate America.
Related product：Crude Oil
Market analysis：Benchmark Brent oil prices turned negative on Monday, erasing gains made after major producers agreed record global output cuts, pressured by concerns that the cuts will not be sufficient to reduce a glut as the coronavirus pandemic hammers demand.
EA trading： Supported
Forex commission： Supported
Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK) memastikan akan terus memantau perkembangan pasar dan secara proaktif meninjau serangkaian kebijakan yang berlaku untuk menjaga Pasar Modal Indonesia tetap beroperasi. Upaya di tengah volatilitas pasar yang dipenuhi ketidakpastian akibat pandemi Virus Corona atau Covid-19.Langkah ini dilakukan bersama dengan Self-Regulatory Organization (SRO) pasar modal di Indonesia, yaitu PT Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI), PT Klliring Penjaminan Efek Indonesia(KPEI), dan PT Kustodian Sentral Efek Indonesia (KSEI). "OJK dan SRO juga akan terus mengupayakan keberlangsungan aktivitas perdagangan bursa efek yang teratur, wajar dan efisien, dan layanan pasar modal kepada seluruh stakeholders," ujar Deputi Komisioner Humas dan Logistik, Anto Prabowo dalam keterangannya, Senin
Market analysis：GOLD PRICES, INTEREST RATES, 2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS, COVID-19 – TALKING POINTS:The coronavirus broke upon a world where monetary policy was already extremely looseFiscal authorities sensing danger have stepped in with a willBut this remains uncharted monetary territoryIn coronavirus the global economy has been hamstrung by a crisis which, in monetary terms, had not really recovered from the previous one.The 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) wreckage is still clearly visible across the world in the often record low interest rates which were already in place before the virus struck. Moral hazard is never far away from financial markets who can now see the cost of keeping rates low to fight the last crisis: there’s too little ammunition left to fight the next one.In more usual times the authorities have room to make swingeing cuts to borrowing costs in an effort to stimulate their economies. The GFC saw US rates come down from more than 5% to effectively zero, having risen back to that point from around 2% in 2004. The global economy sailed in to the coronavirus with the upper bound of the Fed Funds target rate range at a princely 1.75%, already very low by historical standards.And the Fed has at least managed to raise interest rates from their financial crisis lows. They remained negative in Japan, and at record lows almost everywhere else, even as the virus struck.Accorded almost magic properties in the days of Alan Greenspan, the effectiveness of conventional monetary policy had come to be doubted even by those who practice it, in the months before coronavirus hit.'NORMAL’ INTEREST RATE LEVELS HAD ALREADY COLLAPSEDInterest rate suppression had become a necessity in order to stop businesses and households who’d been incentivized by low rates to borrow to the hilt from going under. Sure enough they were delivered, but they left very little room for crisis fighting. As we now see. Happily the world’s fiscal authorities have seen this problem for what it is, and stepped into the monetary policy gap with huge stimulus programs of their own, most notably the US’ two-trillion-dollar whopper.But this too comes with considerable hazard, especially if the coronavirus forces the global economy into deep freeze for a prolonged periods. National balance sheets were already groaning, the costs of economic rescue will inevitably put strained credit ratings under further duress.What this means for trading markets is likely very simple. The bid for so-called haven assets is likely to be stronger than it was, and probably far more lasting. Think gold, the Swiss Franc, the US Dollar and the bonds of ever-rarer, rock-solid national borrowers. Riskier plays, by contrast, may well see more skittish demand profiles.To some extent we are merely seeing a trend long in place turbocharged by the coronavirus.Gold prices for example have been permanently at levels which would be regarded as historically quite high ever since the end of the financial crisis in 2009.
EURO ANALYSIS, EUR/USD, FRENCH PRESIDENT EMMANUEL MACRON, CORONAVIRUS– TALKING POINTSThe Euro could suffer if Macron extends French coronavirus lockdownOther states may mimic second-largest Eurozone economy’s decisionEUR/USD broke out of compression zone but gains could be cappedASIA-PACIFIC RECAPInitially, crude oil prices and US equity futures pointed higher after OPEC struck an historic production cut agreement over the weekend. However, what appeared to be a flicker of optimism initially quickly deteriorated into a risk-off tilt as growth-oriented assets turned lower. Asia-Pacific equities were generally mixed while the Japanese Yen edged higher against its G10 counterparts.EURO EYES FRENCH PRESIDENT EMMANUEL MACRON EASTER SPEECHThe Euro may fall if French President Emmanuel Macron hints at extending the lockdown to curb the spread of the coronavirus. The prospect of a prolonged period of weaker consumption and higher unemployment because of shelter-in-place orders in the second-largest Eurozone economy could send a chilling message across the region.Other states may follow out of concern that a premature opening could risk a second wave of contagion. While Eurozone finance ministers were able to make some progress on a unified agreement for stimulus, additional may be needed if the shelter-in-place orders are extended. The main elements of the emergency package include revised credit lines from the ESM and a new 100 billion euro unemployment insurance policy.But the debate on how to deal with spending and structural issues after the coronavirus crisis is dealt with remain at the back of everyone’s minds. Learn more about market-moving political rifts here.EUR/USD PRICE CHARTEUR/USD has broken above resistance labelled as “Downtrend Alpha” and out of the compression zone. However, the victory for Euro bulls may be short-lived as the pair mounts to challenge former support-turned-resistance between 1.0981 and 1.0989. If EUR/USD capitulates, it may instill a sense of discouragement and pressure the pair to retesting support at 1.0783.
JAPANESE YEN, AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR, NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR TALKING POINTS:Stocks slipped in a holiday thinned start to the weekRisk aversion was notable as earnings season loomsCrude oil prices were up but below the highs reached on news of production cuts.A new Asia Pacific trading week started off with risk aversion in the ascendant as investors fretted the likely heavy hit to corporate earnings dealt by the coronavirus’ awful spread. The anti-risk Japanese Yen made gains, while the growth-correlated Australian and New Zealand Dollars took an early hit, admittedly in markets thinned by Easter Monday holidays which saw major centers like Sydney and Hong Kong out of the game.Open stock markets were lower, with the Nikkei 225 down more than 1% and the Kospi off by 0.75%. US stock futures also pointed lower.Oil prices climbed on news that the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies in the so-called ’OPEC Plus’ group had agreed production cuts, apparently ending the ruinous dispute on the subject which threatened to flood the market with cheap crude oil. Still, it’s by no means certain that such a flood would have been a bad thing in a world reeling from coronavirus, and end-demand for energy remains under heavy clouds. The bloc which includes Russia has agreed on reduction of 9.7 million barrels per day.Goldman Sachs has already reportedly called the reductions too little and too late and still sees downside risk to its $20/barrel 2020 forecast, fearing that storage capacity will still be overwhelmed.US earnings season will kick off this week, with first quarter performances from the major banks in focus. With interest rates now cut back to the bone all over the world profitability will be under the microscope.Given all of the above it’s hardly surprising that the markets should have endured a cautious open. USD/JPY headed lower early but found Dollar bulls ready US crude oil prices have also risen on Monday but they remain well below the $31/barrel level hit in the immediate aftermath of the news that production cuts had been agreed.to defend psychological support at 108.00.
US DOLLAR, SINGAPORE DOLLAR, INDONESIAN RUPIAH, MALAYSIAN RINGGIT - TALKING POINTSASEAN countries step up FX intervention amid the coronavirus outbreakAs they did this, pairs like USD/SGD, USD/IDR and USD/MYR stabilizedInvestors may scrutinize central bank FX reserves when sentiment soursUSD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/MYR CLOSELY EYEING FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVESAs the haven-linked US Dollar aggressively appreciated amid the coronavirus outbreak, ASEAN central banks stepped up FX intervention efforts to help stem selling pressure in their currencies. A great way to measure the vigor of their actions is by looking at foreign exchange reserves. Lately pairs such as USD/SGD, USD/IDR and USD/MYR have given back recent gains, perhaps suggesting that these efforts are working.On the chart below, foreign exchange reserves have been declining in ASEAN nations such as Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. In fact those in Malaysia dipped to US$101.7 billion in March which was the lowest since the beginning of 2019. Indonesian FX reserves fell to US$120.97 billion last month which was the smallest since May 2019. Singapore levels have also turned cautiously lower.China – the world’s largest holder of foreign exchange reserves - has also been spending its fair share. Their holdings declined by $46.1 billion last month which was the most aggressive pace since the end of 2016. When central banks spend their international reserves – which are mostly held in US Dollars - they can use them to purchase domestic FX and boost prices. This can go on so long as their holdings are not fully depleted.Granted, there has been a material shift in market sentiment since the end of last month. A combination of aggressive fiscal and monetary easing efforts from nations across the world to help stabilize economic health appears to be working thus far. But investors can become nervous in the event that risk aversion resurfaces and look at levels of FX reserve depletion with greater scrutiny.
Related product：Crude Oil
Market analysis：CRUDE OIL AND GOLD TALKING POINTS:Crude oil prices have risen but perhaps not by much give the magnitude of proposes output reductionRisk appetite remains extremely fragileGold prices have backtracked a little but remain near one-month highsOil prices were higher in Asia Pacific trade on Monday thanks to news of an agreement to cut production reached by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, the so-called ‘OPEC Plus’ group.The largest single output cut in history comes in response to demand destruction stemming from the coronavirus’ spread. It is intended to see 9.7 million barrels drained from the market every day from May 1. The decision markets the end of a dispute between Saudi Arabi and Russia. The two oil-export titans failed to agree on reductions at the start of March leading to a price war which battered prices and threatened to overwhelm storage facilities with a wave of cheap crude.
Market analysis：Overall, USD/CAD is ranging across. Recently, USD/CAD gapped lower earlier today when market opened after OPEC announced that together with its oil producing allies, they will cut oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day in May and June, ending the oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia. This led to the strengthening of the Canadian dollar.Currently, USD/CAD is testing the support level of 1.39800 and the next resistance level is at 1.42250.Canadian banks will be closed today in observance of Victoria Day. Lower trading volume and volatility is expected during the Canadian trading session.
Market analysis：Overall, EUR/USD is trending downwards. Recently, EUR/USD has been ranging across.EUR/USD’s next support level is at 1.08000 and the next resistance level is at 1.10000.French and Italian banks will be closed today in observance of Easter Monday. Lower trading volume and volatility is expected during the European trading session.
Market analysis：Overall, GBP/USD is trending downwards. Recently, GBP/USD has been ranging across.UK banks will be closed today in observance of Easter Monday. Lower trading volume and volatility is expected during the London trading session.GBP/USD’s next support level is at 1.22400 and the next resistance level is at 1.25500.
Market analysis：Last Friday, USD was in consolidation.The U.S. CPI data released last Friday was worse than forecasted.- CPI m/m (Actual: -0.4%, Forecast: -0.3%, Previous: 0.1%)- Core CPI m/m (Forecast: -0.1%, Forecast: 0.1%, Previous: 0.2%)Last week, the Federal Reserve announced that it will be providing up to $2.3 trillion of loans to households and employers of all sizes.
Market analysis：Overall, NZD/USD is ranging across. Recently, NZD/USD tested but failed to break above the key level of 0.61.New Zealand banks will be closed today in observance of Easter Monday. Lower trading volume and volatility is expected during the New Zealand trading session.NZD/USD’s next support level is at 0.60300 and the next resistance level is at 0.62200.
Market analysis：Overall, USD/JPY is ranging across. Recently, USD/JPY moved lower, breaking the support level of 108.500.USD/JPY’s next support level is at 106.800 and the next resistance level is at 108.500.
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