Market analysis：Overall, USD/CAD is trending downwards. Recently, USD/CAD has been ranging across around the key level of 1.39.The Bank of Canada (BoC) will be announcing their interest rate decision later at 2100 (SGT).It is expected that the BoC will be holding interest rate unchanged at 0.25% as interest rate level is at its effective lower bound. Nonetheless, the BoC may still be implementing more easing measures if the Canadian economy further deteriorates due to the Covid-19 pandemic.The BoC will also be holding a press conference at 2130 (SGT). During this time, volatility is expected of CAD.USD/CAD’s next support level is at 1.38000 and the next resistance level is at 1.39800.
Market analysis：GLOBAL EQUITY GAINS DESPITE CORONAVIRUS, TALKING POINTS:Stock markets have risen quite sharply this monthThese gains have come even as the coronavirus continues to smash global demandCrises are not always bad times for stock markets
Market analysis：Overall, GBP/USD is trending upwards. Recently, GBP/USD trended higher, breaking the resistance level of 1.25500.Today, UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab will be announcing whether the country will extend its lockdown period.GBP/USD’s next support level is at 1.25500 and the next resistance level is at 1.28000.
Market analysis：Yesterday, USD weakened against all major currencies.Earlier today, it was announced that President Trump had halted funding to the World Health Organization (WHO), claiming that the WHO “failed in its basic duty and it must be held accountable” as he feels that the WHO is “mismanaging and covering up the spread of coronavirus”.The U.S. Retail Sales m/m data will be released later at 2230 (SGT).- Core Retail Sales m/m (Forecast: -4.9%, Previous: -0.4%)- Retail Sales m/m (Forecast: -8.0%, Previous: -0.5%)If the released data is worse than or as forecasted, USD may weaken.
Market analysis：Overall, NZD/USD is trending upwards. Recently, NZD/USD moved lower, breaking below the key level of 0.61.NZD/USD’s next support level is at 0.60300 and the next resistance level is at 0.62200.
Market analysis：Overall, AUD/USD is trending upwards. Recently, AUD/USD moved higher towards the resistance level of 0.64800.The Australian employment data for March will be released tomorrow at 0930 (SGT).- Employment Change (Forecast: -33.0K, Previous: 26.7K)- Unemployment Rate (Forecast: 5.4%, Previous: 5.1%)It is forecasted that the Australian job market performed badly due to the coronavirus pandemic.If the released data is worse than or as forecasted, the Australian dollar may weaken.AUD/USD’s next support level is at 0.61800 and the next resistance level is at 0.64800.
Market analysis：Overall, USD/JPY is ranging across. Recently, USD/JPY moved lower towards the key level of 107.Currently, USD/JPY is testing to break below the key level of 107. Its next support level is at 106.800 and the next resistance level is at 108.500.
Market analysis：Overall, EUR/USD is ranging across. Recently, EUR/USD moved higher into the resistance level of 1.10000.Currently, EUR/USD is testing the resistance level of 1.10000 and the next support level is at 1.08000.
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1. Activity name:Win WikiFX VIP Worth Up to $13.99! Comment COVID-19 Topic in WikiFX App or Share Post to Your Facebook Page 2. Activity background:Over the past month, the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak has spread around the world, causing turmoil in financial markets. In addition to the plunge in major stock markets, the bond and forex markets also fluctuated significantly. What are your unique insights about the current and future forex market trends? Come join us in sharing your views on market outlook and win WikiFX VIP membership! 3.Activity period:April 15th, 2020 0: 00: 00 ~ April 21th, 23:59:59 (EST: UTC+8) 4.How to participate:(Check more details at 1st comment)
GOLD AND CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:Gold prices made new 7-year highs as haven assets continued to find favorChinese import and export numbers beat gloomy forecastsCrude oil held up, but massive production cuts have not seen an upside range break yetGold prices pushed on to new seven-year highs on Tuesday as investors continued to fret about the global economic hit dealt by the coronavirus even as Chinese economic data came in less weakly than expected.In US Dollar terms exports fell by 6.6% on the year in March, while imports slipped by 0.9%. This was in both cases much less than forecasts which centred on respective falls of 13.9% and 9.8%. While these numbers may suggest that supply chains are holding up better than economists had feared, it remains likely that the full extent of the demand collapse seen in western economies now to varying extents locked down has yet to show up in the data.The US Congress struggled to come up with a new relief bill on Monday with the Republicans and Democrats in standoff. The budget deficit is now forecast to balloon and anxious eyes are being cast are the dawning corporate earnings season. Meanwhile the International Monetary Fund said on Monday that it would provide immediate relief to 25 member nations under its catastrophe relief program.Given all of the above a continued strong haven bid into gold is unsurprising and, indeed can be clearly seen. The metal is now at its highest since November 2012, with its all-time peaks now in the bulls’ sights.
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR TALKING POINTSNZD/USD trades to a fresh monthly high (0.6131) even though New Zealand’s Treasury anticipates “a deep contraction in activity in the present June quarter,” and the exchange rate faces a key test as it comes up against the former support zone around 0.6170 (50% expansion) to 0.6230 (38.2% expansion).NZD/USD RATE FORECAST: FORMER SUPPORT ZONE ON THE RADARNZD/USD extends the advance from earlier this month even though New Zealand’s Treasury outlines five different economic scenarios following COVID-19, with the growth rate expected to decline “around 13% in Scenario 1, the least restrictive of the scenarios considered.”Recent price action raises the scope for a larger correction as NZD/USD negates a bear flag formation and breaks out of a narrow range, but the weakening outlook for global growth undermines the recent rebound in the exchange rate as it puts pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to further support the economy.The government projection warns “peaks in the unemployment rate vary from around 13% in Scenario 1 to nearly 26% in Scenario 3,” and the nationwide lockdown may force the RBNZ to deploy more non-standard measures even though the central bank adds “$3 billion of Local Government Funding Agency (LGFA) debt to its Large Scale Asset Purchase programme (LSAP).”Unlike the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the RBNZ may continue to endorse a dovish forward guidance at its next meeting on May 13 as Governor Adrian Orr insists that the central bank “can keep monetary support going for as long as necessary through QE (quantitative easing) and other tools.”It seems as though the RBNZ will continue to utilize its balance sheet as officials insist that the official cash rate (OCR) will sit at the record low of 0.25%for “at least 12 months,” and it remains to be seen if Governor Orr and Co. will continue to push monetary policy into uncharted territory as the central bank plans to “update its economic assessment and the size and scope of the LSAP at its next scheduled meeting.”With that said, the near-term correction in NZD/USD may continue to evolve ahead of the next RBNZ interest rate decision, but the exchange rate faces a key test as it comes up against the former support zone around 0.6170 (50% expansion) to 0.6230 (38.2% expansion
SINGAPORE DOLLAR, INDONESIAN RUPIAH, MALAYSIAN RINGGIT, PHILIPPINE PESO – TALKING POINTSUS Dollar sank versus ASEAN FX as sentiment continued improving last weekAll eyes are on US earnings and retail sales. China GDP, Bank of Indonesia upWhat else is in store for USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/MYR and USD/PHP ahead?US DOLLAR ASEAN WEEKLY RECAPLast week’s US Dollar rout continued against ASEAN FX as it depreciated against the Singapore Dollar, Indonesian Rupiah, Malaysian Ringgit and Philippine Peso. Market sentiment continued to broadly improve which helped to slow overall capital outflows from emerging market economies. To learn more about the importance of this fundamental theme, check out last week’s ASEAN fundamental outlook.Investors’ cheery mood could be attributed to a combination of hope for further US fiscal stimulus as well as slowing coronavirus case growth around parts of the world. Once again, the markets brushed aside the ongoing onslaught of dismal economic data. An unprecedented 17 million people have applied for jobless claims in the United States since the middle of last month as local consumer sentiment dwindled.One of the best-performing ASEAN currencies was the Indonesian Rupiah. This could have been attributed to the Federal Reserve opening up a US$60 billion repo facility with the country to help ease a USD shortage. ASEAN central banks have been stepping up efforts to stem devaluations in their currencies. Foreign exchange reserves are being spent and may continue being unwound. Investors are looking on with greater scrutiny.
GBP PRICE, NEWS AND ANALYSIS:Chinese trade data for March exceeded expectations, boosting market sentiment generally.GBP is one of the beneficiaries, along with other ‘risk-on’ currencies including AUD and NZD.Now, 1.30 is in the frame as a long-term target for GBP/USD.GBP/USD EXTENDS ADVANCERisk-on currencies including GBP, AUD and NZD are advancing against the USD after the latest Chinese trade data showed exports and imports both exceeding the expectations of analysts polled by the news agencies. The numbers showed exports down 6.6% in March, rather than the forecast -13.9%, and imports lower by 0.9% rather than the predicted -9.8%.Along with hopes that the coronavirus pandemic may be close to peaking, the start of measures being eased in countries like Austria and Spain, and central bank and government stimulus, a ray of optimism has returned. That has extended the climb in GBP/USD that began three weeks ago, bringing the early March high above 1.30 into focus as a long-term target.GBP/USD PRICE CHART, FOUR-HOUR TIMEFRAME (MARCH 4 – APRIL 14, 2020)
EURO OUTLOOK, DAX INDEX, IMF WORD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, IMF GLOBAL FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT – TALKING POINTSEuro, DAX index could face selling pressure if IMF outlook spooks European marketsCoronavirus pandemic threatening to undermine regional financial, economic stabilityDAX index has experienced a recovery but remains down over 20 percent year-to-dateASIA-PACIFIC RECAPUS equity futures aimed higher along with Asia-Pacific stocks in what appeared to be a “risk-on” tilt in investors’ mood. This was also reflected in currency markets where the anti-risk US Dollar and Japanese Yen fell while their growth-oriented counterparts – the Australian and New Zealand Dollars – strengthened. This also followed better-than-expected Chinese trade data.EURO, DAX MAY FALL ON IMF WEO AND GFSRThe Euro and DAX may fall if the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Economic Outlook (WEO) and Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) reports inspire a selloff in the already-battered currency and index. While Eurozone finance ministers were able to reach an agreement on stimulus, unresolved political rifts may soon haunt the region at a time when it faces a crisis worse than what it had endured in 2008.Year-to-date, the Euro has fallen almost three percent and is trading at a multi-year low with the German DAX equity index down over 20 percent. The coronavirus pandemic has exposed underlying issues in the Eurozone both financially and economically that are now requiring unprecedented efforts on the part of governments and the European Central Bank (ECB) to address.The IMF’s assessment – particularly as it relates to financial stability – could inspire a selloff in the Euro and growth-oriented assets in the region if the institution’s outlook undermines confidence in a smooth recovery. Concern about the cross-continental so-called leveraged loan market has stirred investors’ angst in recent months with policymakers warning of another possible regional debt crisis.
Market analysis：Overall, USD/CAD is trending downwards. Recently, USD/CAD trended lower, breaking the support level of 1.39800.Earlier today, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said that they are ready to cut oil production further during the next OPEC+ meeting in June if necessary.USD/CAD next support level is at 1.38000 and the next resistance level is at 1.39800.
Market analysis：Overall, GBP/USD is trending upwards. Recently, GBP/USD trended higher into the resistance level of 1.25500.Currently, GBP/USD is testing the resistance level of 1.25500 and the next support level is at 1.22400.
Overall, EUR/USD is ranging across. Recently, EUR/USD tested but failed to break below 1.09.EUR/USD’s next support level is at 1.08000 and the next resistance level is at 1.10000.
Market analysis：Overall, EUR/USD is ranging across. Recently, EUR/USD tested but failed to break below 1.09.EUR/USD’s next support level is at 1.08000 and the next resistance level is at 1.10000.
Market analysis：Overall, AUD/USD is trending upwards. Recently, AUD/USD trended higher, breaking above the key level of 0.64.AUD/USD’s next support level is at 0.61800 and the next resistance level is at 0.64800.
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