US DOLLAR ASEAN WEEKLY RECAPThe US Dollar mostly aimed higher this past week against ASEAN currencies such as the Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit and Philippine Peso. It lost ground however to the Indonesian Rupiah, resulting in an overall down week for my ASEAN-based US Dollar index. Weakness in the haven-linked Greenback notably slowed as of late despite a cautiously optimistic mood on Wall Street as equities rose over the past 5 days.The resilience in the Rupiah comes amid upbeat commentary from Bank of Indonesia’s Governor Perry Warjiyo who mentioned last week that intervention needs “have been largely reduced”. As I mentioned prior, the USD continued to focusing on external developments to find direction against currencies in the developing Asia Pacific region. This will likely continue being the case in the week ahead.LAST WEEK’S US DOLLAR PERFORMANCEUS Dollar Fundamental Outlook: SGD, IDR, MYR, PHP Focus on EarningsASEAN-Based US Dollar Index averages USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/MYR and USD/IDRConfirmed coronavirus case growth in Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines has been slowing on average. The weekly chart below overlays these cases alongside my ASEAN-based US Dollar index. The latter averages USD against SGD, MYR, IDR and PHP. This is also following the cautious easing in global reports such as in countries like the United States, Italy and France.
CANADIAN DOLLAR, CRUDE OIL, US DOLLAR, STOCKS, EARNINGS - TALKING POINTS:Canadian Dollar down as crude oil, stocks drop to start the weekAnxiety ahead of key Q1 earnings reports maybe risk-off catalystUS Dollar buoyed by haven demand, anti-fiat gold prices lowerThe Canadian Dollar led the way lower among its G10 FX counterparts financial markets started the trading week in a defensive mood. Bellwether S&P 500 futures fell – pointing to a broadly risk-off disposition – as financial markets. Crude oil prices sank to the lowest level since 2001, which probably explains some of the Loonie’s outsized losses. The haven US Dollar traded broadly higher, pressuring anti-fiat gold prices.Investors’ dour disposition may reflect anxiety ahead of a busy week for corporate earnings report that look set to paint a bleak picture of the damage wrought by the coronavirus outbreak. Perhaps most worryingly for cyclical assets like stocks and commodity-linked currencies, early signs of stabilization in the Covid-19 infections tally may be shifting the markets’ focus to the outbreak’s long-term economic impact.
AUD/USD RATE RETAINS ASCENDING CHANNEL FORMATION AHEAD OF RBA MINUTESAUD/USD continues to track the upward trending channel carried over from the previous month as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) abandons the dovish forward guidance for monetary policy, and the minutes from the April meeting may heighten the appeal of the Australian Dollar if the central bank tames speculation for additional monetary support.The update to Australia’s Employment report may encourage the RBA to adopt an improved outlook as the economy unexpectedly adds 5.9K jobs in March, and Governor Philip Lowe and Co. may continue to change their tune over the coming months as officials insist that “smaller and less frequent purchases of government bonds will be required” if market conditions continue to improve.The unprecedented efforts taken by monetary and well as fiscal authorities should help to curb the slowdown in economic activity, but the RBA may come under pressure to further support the economy as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sees global growth contracting 3.0% in 2020.
MAJOR OIL TRADER’S COLLAPSE, RISK APPETITE. TALKING POINTS:Oil trading giant Hin Leong has filed for bankruptcy protectionMarkets are now weighing the exposure of its lendersEnergy prices’ collapse seems to have claimed a major playerIn every major crisis there comes a point at which weakening economic numbers translate into corporate scalps and the nodal Singapore energy market has reached that point. Its biggest oil trading firm Hin Leong Trading has filed for bankruptcy protection, seeking to restructure nearly $4 billion in debt.If course, the energy sector has taken an unprecedent hit. The coronavirus has shredded energy-demand forecasts even as major producers saturate the market with cheap oil. Oil prices have collapsed to lows not seen since 2001, even after major production cuts which have so far done nothing to revive it.
Market analysis：BTCUSD Live Trend Alert 18/04/2020 22:55 UTC #Forex #EagleFX https://eaglefx.com/news/btcusd-live-trend-alert-18-04-2020-2255-utc/
Market analysis：Canadian Dollar Sinks as Crude Oil Prices and Stocks Drop http://dlvr.it/RV4QB0 | http://bit.ly/fxtrade1 #forex #forextrader
Market analysis：Overall, GBP/USD is trending upwards. Recently, GBP/USD has been ranging between the support level of 1.24400 and the key level of 1.35.GBP/USD’s next support level is at 1.24400 and the next resistance level is at 1.26000.
Market analysis：Overall, USD/CAD is trending downwards. Recently, USD/CAD bounced off the support level of 1.39800.Currently, USD/CAD is moving towards the key level of 1.41. Its next support level is at 1.39800 and the next resistance level is at 1.42250.
Market analysis：Overall, EUR/USD is ranging across. Recently, EUR/USD bounced off the support level of 1.08000.The eurozone Final CPI y/y data released last Friday was as forecasted.- Final CPI y/y (Actual: 0.7%, Forecast: 0.7%, Previous: 0.7%)- Final Core CPI y/y (Actual: 1.0%, Forecast: 1.0%, Previous: 1.0%)EUR/USD’s next support level is at 1.08000 and the next resistance level is at 1.10000.
Market analysis：Overall, USD/JPY is trending downwards. Recently, USD/JPY has been ranging across within the support level of 107.300 and the key level of 108.USD/JPY’s next support level is at 107.300 and the next resistance level is at 109.000.
Market analysis：Last Friday, USD weakened against all major currencies after a risk-on mentality of market participants was sparked by President Trump’s announcement that some parts of the U.S. will be opening up, allowing some states and employers to drop most social distancing practices within four weeks.Also, positive partial data from experimental drug trials on severely ill Covid-19 patients at the University of Chicago hospital was reported by a health-oriented news website last Friday, creating an optimistic view on a possible vaccine.
Market analysis：Overall, NZD/USD is trending upwards. Recently, NZD/USD moved higher, breaking above the key level of 0.60.The New Zealand CPI q/q data (Actual: 0.8%, Forecast: 0.4%, Previous: 0.5%) released earlier today was better than forecasted.Currently, NZD/USD is bouncing off the key level of 0.60. Its next support level is at 0.58400 and the next resistance level is at 0.61000.
Market analysis：Overall, AUD/USD is trending upwards. Recently, AUD/USD has been ranging across.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be releasing the minutes for this month’s monetary policy meeting tomorrow at 0930 (SGT).RBA Governor will be delivering a speech tomorrow at 1300 (SGT). During this time, volatility is expected of AUD.AUD/USD’s next support level is at 0.61800 and the next resistance level is at 0.64200.
Market analysis：The USD/CAD is supported at 1.3950, 1.3875 and 1.3780 with resistance lines at 1.4110, 1.4200 and 1.4360 from price action over the past month. Though the volatility has been high since the global onset of the virus in early March, price action has begun to establish levels of interest and the longer the USD/CAD remains in these ranges the greater the chance that transitory developments will be contained there.
Market analysis：Support awaits at the recent lows of 1.0815. It is followed by 1.0760, April's trough, and then by 1.0640, the 2020 low. The next levels to watch are 1.0580, 1.0460, and 1.0360.Resistance is at 1.0995, which is April's high level. It is followed by 1.11, a high point in February. The swing high of 1.1150 and 1.12 are next.
EURO TECHNICAL PRICE OUTLOOK: EUR/USD WEEKLY TRADE LEVELSEuro updated technical trade levels & sentiment – Weekly ChartEUR/USD in consolidation within April monthly opening-rangeCritical support at 1.0657 – breach above 1.1187 needed to shift broader focus higher.
Market analysis：The pound has been sluggish lately, and the following 2 factors, among others, have played a crucial role in the pound’s continuous decline.1.Brexit uncertainties remainBrexit trade talks have been halted due to the global pandemic, and combined with the remark of government spokesman Slack on Thursday that Britain will not extend the transition period of Brexit, investors doubt that the two sides will be able to settle the Brexit trade deal before the end of this year.2.Investment sentiment has deterioratedWith the temporary stock market rally that lasted just 2 weeks, the constantly shrinking economic indicators and the gloomy global economic outlook projected by major investment banks and financial institutions, the severe impacts of lockdown measures on business activities have begun to show, while market optimism was dampened as well. Britain has a well-developed financial service industry and London is a widely acknowledged global
Also, the DXY Index appears to have found technical support around the 99.00 price level, which is highlighted by the confluence of its 50-day simple moving average, October 2019 swing high, and mid-point retracement of last month’s bullish leg. From a fundamental perspective, the latest coronavirus developments have likely rekindled demand for safe-haven currencies and US Dollar dominance. Specifically, investor risk appetite soured on the back of news that several countries are prolonging their coronavirus lockdown.
Market participants have already started to show signs that their recent influx of coronavirus optimism has waned. This is indicated by a pop in the VIX Index, or ‘fear-gauge,’ which happens to mirror a spike in implied currency volatility. Ominously, the recent uptick in expected FX volatility and S&P 500 volatility seems to resemble the volatility explosion traders witnessed throughout February and March.
A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +1.72 (63.26% of traders are long) – bearishreadingLong positions are 17.19% lower than yesterday and 1.10% higher from last weekShort positions are 0.21% higher than yesterday and 38.94% higher from last weekWe typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week and the recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
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