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USD Overview (14 May 2020)

Yesterday, USD strengthened against most major currencies except JPY. During a speech yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the central bank is not considering negative interest rates despite speculations that they will go further into the negative territory.   USD/JPY Outlook (14 May 2020) Overall, USD/JPY is ranging across. Recently USD/JPY moved lower, breaking below the key level of 107. USD/JPY‘s next support level is at 106.200 and the next resistance level is at 107.800. Look for selling opportunities of USD/JPY.   EUR/USD Outlook (14 May 2020) Overall, EUR/USD is ranging across. Recently, EUR/USD bounced off the key level of 1.09, moving lower towards the support level of 1.07800. EUR/USD’s next support level is at 1.07800 and the next resistance level is at 1.09700. Look for selling opportunities of EUR/USD. GBP/USD Outlook (14 May 2020) Overall, GBP/USD is ranging across. Recently, GBP/USD trended lower into the support level of 1.22400. The UK GDP data released yesterday indicated a negative growth in the UK economy due to the negative impact caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the measures taken to reduce transmission of the virus. The decline in quarterly GDP is the biggest fall since Quarter 4 2009. -Preliminary GDP q/q (Actual: -2.0%, Forecast: -2.6%, Previous: 0.0%) -GDP m/m (Actual: -5.8%, Forecast -7.9%, Previous: -0.1%) Bank of England Governor Bailey will be speaking in a webinar later at 1830 (SGT). Currently, GBP/USD is testing the support level of 1.22400 and the next resistance level is at 1.24400. Look for selling opportunities of GBP/USD if it breaks the support level of 1.22400.

2020-05-14 14:19 India

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Technical index

Well-known Hedge Increased Bullish Bets on Gold

Several hedge fund giants have raised their bullish bets on gold, according to Wall Street source.   These include Elliott Management led by Paul Singer, Caxton Associates managed by Andrew Law and Dymon Asia Capital founded by Danny Yong.   According to latest Commitment of Traders report released by the US Commodities and Futures Trading Commission(CFTC) on May 1st, as of the week ending on April 28th, speculative net longs increased by 13,158 to 262,729 contracts, signaling a growing bullish bet on gold. Speculators are betting that a new round of monetary easing and fiscal stimulus to tackle coronavirus epidemic  around the globe will lead to currency depreciation and benefit gold.   US Treasury estimates that net volume of US T-Bond in circulation in Q2, 2020 will increase by US$3 trillion, which creates a new quarterly record. Analysts observed that measures taken by major global economies in the name of fighting the pandemic are essentially printing money without limit, and in such case gold makes an ideal save-haven asset against depreciating currencies.   Alex Mashinsky, chief executive of Celsius Network, said the massive monetary easing policies by central banks would boost the performance of safe-haven gold, while the rest of the gains could be driven by low interest rates and disruptions to gold mining.   Gold daily pivot points: 1689---1695 S1: 1676             R1: 1702 S2: 1666             R2: 1718  

2020-05-07 18:16 India

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Technical index

EUR/USD – Coiling Up on Major Long-term Support, B

EUR/USD PRICE ACTION TIGHTENING UP AROUND MAJOR SUPPORT The price action since last month has been tightening up in the Euro, making for a situation that could soon turn explosive as low volatility turns to high volatility. What is particularly interesting about this situation is that it is also occurring at a trend-line dating back to 1985 when you construct EUR/USD prior to the existence of the Euro from its constituents. Given the magnitude of the trend-line a major make or break situation is upon us. With price acting rather soft around the line with multiple and increasingly smaller bounces taking shape, probability is rising quickly that we see a breakdown. The first line of support to watch is 10768, followed by the important March low at 10635. A break of the latter line could quickly give EUR/USD separation from the trend-line towards the January 2017 low at 10340 and parity. Given the significance of the trend-line a break well beyond parity is certainly possible. If, however, support continues to hold it is possible a base is being built and EUR/USD is preparing to trade higher in a meaningful way. It is looking like the lesser likely scenario at this juncture, but one we can’t rule out. Support is support until it’s not. The first level of resistance to break to get things going is 10990, then the falling 200-day at 11046. Beyond there if momentum can pick up then we may see much higher levels come. But don’t be surprised if momentum starts to develop only to fail once again. The long-side has been tough since 2018, and until the Euro can prove itself this may be the case for some time to come.

2020-05-06 09:55 United States

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IndexUSD Overview (14 May 2020)

Yesterday, USD strengthened against most major currencies except JPY. During a speech yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the central bank is not considering negative interest rates despite speculations that they will go further into the negative territory.   USD/JPY Outlook (14 May 2020) Overall, USD/JPY is ranging across. Recently USD/JPY moved lower, breaking below the key level of 107. USD/JPY‘s next support level is at 106.200 and the next resistance level is at 107.800. Look for selling opportunities of USD/JPY.   EUR/USD Outlook (14 May 2020) Overall, EUR/USD is ranging across. Recently, EUR/USD bounced off the key level of 1.09, moving lower towards the support level of 1.07800. EUR/USD’s next support level is at 1.07800 and the next resistance level is at 1.09700. Look for selling opportunities of EUR/USD. GBP/USD Outlook (14 May 2020) Overall, GBP/USD is ranging across. Recently, GBP/USD trended lower into the support level of 1.22400. The UK GDP data released yesterday indicated a negative growth in the UK economy due to the negative impact caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the measures taken to reduce transmission of the virus. The decline in quarterly GDP is the biggest fall since Quarter 4 2009. -Preliminary GDP q/q (Actual: -2.0%, Forecast: -2.6%, Previous: 0.0%) -GDP m/m (Actual: -5.8%, Forecast -7.9%, Previous: -0.1%) Bank of England Governor Bailey will be speaking in a webinar later at 1830 (SGT). Currently, GBP/USD is testing the support level of 1.22400 and the next resistance level is at 1.24400. Look for selling opportunities of GBP/USD if it breaks the support level of 1.22400.

FX3886574399

2020-05-14 14:19

IndexWell-known Hedge Increased Bullish Bets on Gold

Several hedge fund giants have raised their bullish bets on gold, according to Wall Street source.   These include Elliott Management led by Paul Singer, Caxton Associates managed by Andrew Law and Dymon Asia Capital founded by Danny Yong.   According to latest Commitment of Traders report released by the US Commodities and Futures Trading Commission(CFTC) on May 1st, as of the week ending on April 28th, speculative net longs increased by 13,158 to 262,729 contracts, signaling a growing bullish bet on gold. Speculators are betting that a new round of monetary easing and fiscal stimulus to tackle coronavirus epidemic  around the globe will lead to currency depreciation and benefit gold.   US Treasury estimates that net volume of US T-Bond in circulation in Q2, 2020 will increase by US$3 trillion, which creates a new quarterly record. Analysts observed that measures taken by major global economies in the name of fighting the pandemic are essentially printing money without limit, and in such case gold makes an ideal save-haven asset against depreciating currencies.   Alex Mashinsky, chief executive of Celsius Network, said the massive monetary easing policies by central banks would boost the performance of safe-haven gold, while the rest of the gains could be driven by low interest rates and disruptions to gold mining.   Gold daily pivot points: 1689---1695 S1: 1676             R1: 1702 S2: 1666             R2: 1718  

FX3886574399

2020-05-07 18:16

IndexEUR/USD – Coiling Up on Major Long-term Support, B

EUR/USD PRICE ACTION TIGHTENING UP AROUND MAJOR SUPPORT The price action since last month has been tightening up in the Euro, making for a situation that could soon turn explosive as low volatility turns to high volatility. What is particularly interesting about this situation is that it is also occurring at a trend-line dating back to 1985 when you construct EUR/USD prior to the existence of the Euro from its constituents. Given the magnitude of the trend-line a major make or break situation is upon us. With price acting rather soft around the line with multiple and increasingly smaller bounces taking shape, probability is rising quickly that we see a breakdown. The first line of support to watch is 10768, followed by the important March low at 10635. A break of the latter line could quickly give EUR/USD separation from the trend-line towards the January 2017 low at 10340 and parity. Given the significance of the trend-line a break well beyond parity is certainly possible. If, however, support continues to hold it is possible a base is being built and EUR/USD is preparing to trade higher in a meaningful way. It is looking like the lesser likely scenario at this juncture, but one we can’t rule out. Support is support until it’s not. The first level of resistance to break to get things going is 10990, then the falling 200-day at 11046. Beyond there if momentum can pick up then we may see much higher levels come. But don’t be surprised if momentum starts to develop only to fail once again. The long-side has been tough since 2018, and until the Euro can prove itself this may be the case for some time to come.

TPKNX

2020-05-06 09:55

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